The Ryan Howard reaction

Yesterday I offered my initial, knee-jerk reaction to the asinine contract the Phillies handed to Ryan Howard. My mind has not changed regarding how dumb this contract is. If it were a five-year deal that began in 2010, it would still be a bad deal because it would be paying Howard like one of the five best players of the game, something he isn't. But it would at least be defensible. That it doesn't start until 2012 makes it unbelievably idiotic and could, in fact, be the undoing of this Phillies era of prosperity. I guess they don't need to worry about that for a couple years though.

But I've changed my mind on the Albert Pujols part of it. I no longer believe that this deal is going to hurt the Cardinals in their effort to re-sign one of the three greatest hitters of all-time. Pujols was already going to be the highest paid player of all-time. Does this Howard deal change that? No. Pujols was already going to challenge the $30 million annual threshold. I don't see how this deal will change that.

If one wants to argue that Pujols' actual worth, relative to Howard's, is 150%, I would believe it. That would mean his average annual salary should be $37.5 million. But no team is going to spend that much money on Pujols. His salary will be around $30 million regardless and he's worth more to the Cardinals than he is to any other team. So if the Cardinals were willing to pay $30 million annually this past Saturday, this deal won't change anything.

As for the Phillies, my goodness. His baseball-reference page lists his career comparables through age 29 (Howard's age in 2009) as Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Willie McCovey and David Ortiz. The Phillies better hope Howard turn out like McCovey and not at all like Sexson, Fielder, Vaughn and Ortiz, hulking sluggers who all fell off a cliff early in their 30s (and if you've seen Ortiz this season, you know what I mean; fortunately for the Red Sox, this is the final season of their commitment to Big Papi). I don't know what more to say so instead, I'll throw out what some others are saying:

Rob Neyer, ESPN.com: "Last year, enjoying one of his two best seasons, Howard might have been one of the 30 best players in the majors. Maybe one of the 25 best. And maybe, just maybe, if you stretch the boundaries of analysis and tilt everything in his favor, he was one of the 20 best players in the major leagues.

"That was 2009. What will we (and the Phillies) be trying to do in 2015? Make a case for him as one of the 40 best players in the majors? One of the 50 best?

"Ryan Howard's new contract is a testament the enduring power of the Are-Bee-Eye. It's also a testament to old-school ignorance: ignorance of aging patterns, ignorance of position scarcity, ignorance of opportunity costs ... hey, take your pick. The Phillies have done a lot of things right over the last few years. But this is a big bowl of wrong."

Joshua Fisher, The Hardball Times: "They're locked into tens of millions of dollars each year at the easiest position to fill in the National League. This probably means they'll lose Jayson Werth, so Domonic Brown needs to be ready to go sooner rather than later. The Phils will likely have to suffer the drama playing out in Boston over David Ortiz, but might still owe Howard $100 million while it unfolds. Howard, a fan favorite, seems destined to end up vilified for making what is, in a vacuum, a pretty great decision for himself. Should the Phillies fall far from their current perch atop the division, however, Howard will quickly come to symbolize the organization's decline."

Matt Schwartz, Baseball Prospectus: "If major-league salaries inflate the way that they did during the middle of the 2000s, Howard is going to have plenty of leeway to age without being useless; if salaries hold steady like they have over the last few years, Howard is not only going to need to maintain his production, but might need to learn to pitch, too, in order to be worth his salary."

Bill Baer, Crashburn Alley: "Most Phillies fans will love the extension, as it keeps a fan favorite in town for a long time. Stat-savvy fans immediately dislike the deal. Most Phillies fans will come to loathe the deal in several years when the Phillies are hamstrung by Howard’s relatively large salary and declining production.

"Already, Howard has shown signs of decline as his walk rate has declined every year since 2007 and sits at a paltry 3.6% thus far in 2010. His BABIP has been lower as more and more teams have employed an infield shift against him. Opposing teams have also been bringing in more left-handed relievers to face Howard and his production against them has swiftly dropped. His strikeout rate has declined gradually but so has his isolated power. Using FanGraphs’ pitch type linear weights, Howard’s production against the fastball has dropped every year since 2006. He has swung at more and more pitches outside of the strike zone every year since he came into the Majors. Finally, his whiff rate (swinging strike percentage) has increased every year since 2006.

"This will be a fun ride for two, maybe even three more years, but it will quickly become tumultuous."

Matthew Carruth, FanGraphs: "Even if you think baseball’s salary per win goes up to $4.25 million this coming offseason and rises at a 5% clip every winter through 2017, Howard will need to produce an average of 4.75 wins from 2012 through 2017 just in order to justify his salary. If you factor in that Howard gets (even more) long-term security from this deal, then that average production levels goes up to 5.3 wins.

"In other words, Howard will need six seasons that were better than his 2009 season, except over his 32-37 years. I’m not sure I would lay even money on him achieving even half of that. This contract is both incredibly risky and unnecessary since Howard was already signed through 2011. Say hello to baseball’s newest worst contract."

Craig Calcaterra, Hardball Talk: "But the thing is, Howard doesn't even have to fall off a cliff in the next five years for this deal to be bad. It's bad on day one. Why? Because while we all like Ryan Howard, he's not as good as many like to think he is. Lefties are kryptonite to him. He doesn't walk nearly as much as a slugger like him should. While he's better than he was on defense, he's still bad and, before this contract was signed, seems like a guy who was on the DH-express.

"As of now, Ryan Howard is going to paid more than anyone in the game not named Alex Rodriguez. Unless you can tell me that you can't think of anyone else in baseball not named Alex Rodriguez who is better than Ryan Howard, this contract makes no sense. And if you tell me that, you make no sense."

Craig Corcoran, Sports Illustrated: "If Howard's deal has any impact on Pujols, it's as a reminder that Pujols exists somewhere well north of his counterpart in Philadelphia. The ludicrous Pujols-for-Howard trade rumor this past offseason helped throw the gap between the two players into sharp relief. While Howard has hit .278/.379/.589 over the past four seasons, Pujols batted .333/.427/.628 over the past nine, which is to say his entire career. In his worst season (his .314/.394/.561 performance as a 22-year-old sophomore in 2002) Pujols was every bit as good as Howard has been in his four-year peak seasons. Pujols is also a better fielder, a better baserunner, two months younger than Howard, and in his first nine seasons struck out 195 times fewer than Howard has in his previous four. If Howard is worth $125 million over five years, Pujols could easily be baseball's second $200 million player."

Buster Olney, ESPN.com: "Here's a simple barometer of whether or not this was a good deal for the Phillies: If Philadelphia were to put Howard on the trade market today, with almost seven years and $164 million remaining on his deal, how many offers would it get?

"The answer, in all likelihood: zero.

"Less than 24 hours into his contract, Howard -- a star in his prime -- is already considered by many in the industry to be overpriced.

Jonah Keri, Bloomberg Sports (via his Twitter page): "5 years, $125 million for Ryan Howard!!! A financial quagmire that'll make the Iraq War look like a slap fight."

Tim Marchman, Improve Conditions: "Howard was born November 9, 1979. Adam Dunn was born November 19, 1979. Since 2007 Howard has hit .266/.360/.560 with a 134 OPS+ and 10 steals. Dunn has hit .255/.390/.528 with a 136 OPS+ and 11 steals. Howard is a kind of tolerable defender; Dunn isn't.

"This contract would, then, seem to imply that being a Subway pitchman and a better defender than Adam Dunn is worth about $15 million per year, which bears out given that CC Sabathia, also a Subway pitchman and a better defender than Dunn, also makes about $15 million more than Dunn."

(I fully acknowledge that this deal could ultimately work out for the Phillies. In fact, here are some writers who love the move the Phillies made. But all historical trends based on Howard's production, skill-set and body type, indicate that the likelihood of this deal blowing up in the Phillies face is far greater than the likelihood of Howard coming anywhere close to justifying the contract.)