April 26, 2010

Long-term outlook: Pujols leaves St. Louis, Phillies have regrets

If Ryan Howard is worth $25 million per season, I don't see how the Cardinals can re-sign Albert Pujols. Everyone already knows Pujols is the best player in the game but he's considerably better than Howard (who I don't believe is even the best player on his own team; good luck to the Phillies when it comes time to sign Chase Utley to a new deal). What is Pujols going to be seeking now? $32 million per season?

Meanwhile, the Phillies are really gambling here. Howard is already 30 years old and his body type and skill-set would suggest he won't still be destroying the ball at 33, 34, 35 years old. Hugely built power hitters are more than capable of losing it in an instant, as we've seen with Mo Vaughn and now with David Ortiz. It's the same risk whatever team signs Prince Fielder between now and the winter after the 2011 season will be taking.

$25 million for a below-average fielder who strikes out 200 times a year, hits for a low average, doesn't draw that many walks (81 and 75 the last two years, which isn't that many given that he's hit 58, 47, 48 and 45 homers the last four seasons) and really, really, really struggles against lefties (.207/.298/.356 last season; .226/.309/.443 career). Methinks the Phillies are going to really regret this deal and the Cardinals are going to be really burned by this deal.

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