Stanley Cup playoff picks

In the West, it's what you would have expected. In the East, it's what you least would have expected. The top seeds in the West, the last two seeds in the East. That's your conference finals in the NHL.

The Sharks have been the best regular season team in the NHL since the lockout. They have been the biggest postseason gaggers of this decade, dating back to before the lockout. They finally are in the conference final for the first time since the lockout and second time this decade. They face the Blackhawks who are in their second straight conference final. I really am impressed with the Blackhawks. I don't know what I think about the Sharks.

Yes, San Jose is talented. Probably more talented than the Blackhawks. But the history of postseason failings among core Sharks players still worries me. Joe Thornton. Patrick Marleau. Dany Heatley. Evgeni Nabokov. How can any of these guys be trusted? About the only players on the team I feel really confident in are Rob Blake, who has been in the league for nearly 20 years, and Joe Pavelski, the rising young second-liner who the Red Wings won't soon forget.

Meanwhile, the Blackhawks have one of my 10 favorite players in the league: Jonathan Toews. (The other nine? Henrik Zetterberg, Drew Doughty, Sidney Crosby, Chris Pronger, Nicklas Lidstrom, David Backes, Zach Parise, Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Miller.) He reminds me so much of the older Steve Yzerman in the way he leads and the way he provides offensive punch. Does he have a weakness? If so, I'm not sure what it is. And Toews has help up front in Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa (and has the NHL officially ruled that Hossa will lose the Stanley Cup Final ever year yet?). But what I really like about the Blackhawks are their puck-moving defensemen. As a veteran watcher of Joel Quenneville, I can tell you with 100% confidence that the key to his teams are the ability of his defensemen to move the puck up the ice and spring the transition game. In Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brian Campbell and Brent Sopel, no team in the league except maybe Detroit has a better group of puck-moving defensemen. So long as Antti Niemi holds up in goal, I don't see how Chicago is the lesser of the two teams. I'll take Chicago in six games.

I'm completely confounded on the East. On the one hand, part of me thinks the hockey gods have decided the time has come for the Canadiens to finally return to glory (like the Celtics in 2008 or the Yankees in 1996). On the other hand, maybe it's the Flyers that are a team of destiny after rallying from a three-game deficit and a 3-0 hole in Game 7 to beat the Bruins. All of rememeber the 2004 Boston Red Sox. They rallied from their 3-0 series deficit to win four in a row and shock the Yankees, then destroyed the Cardinals in the World Series. Could the Flyers ride that same kind of momentum?

I don't know. I have to believe the injuries are going to catch up to the Flyers at some point. How much longer can they survive without a top-level player like Jeff Carter? Without the pesky and pugnacious Ian Laperriere? With Michael Leighton in goal? I don't know. But I also know that I don't want to bet against them right now.

Gone largely unnoticed throughout these playoffs is how incredibly well Chris Pronger is playing, like he decided the time has come to reassert himself as the best defenseman in the league (whether he actually is or not). I won't dispute the notion that Pronger has had some bad playoff years in which he mean streak got the better of him and led to a parade of penalties (and injuries, like in 2002 when he tried to take a retaliatory shot at Steve Yzerman and ended up suffering a serious knee injury in the process, one that knocked him out for the rest of the playoffs). But I also know that in the 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2006 and 2009 playoffs he was the best defenseman in the postseason (and he won the Cup in 2007). And he's playing at that level in 2010. Anyone that doubted the wisdom of the deal Philadelphia gave to Pronger after the ransom they sent to Anaheim to acquire him can shutup now. I'm convinced that, after his 2000 Blues won the Presidents' Trophy with Pronger having the best regular season I can ever remember a defenseman having (he was the league MVP that year), Pronger decided that the regular season really doesn't mean that much and decided to conserve his energy for the playoffs. And his playoff performances have largely bore that out.

The Flyers also have a good mix of forwards. I really like Mike Richards. Danny Briere has thrived in a more free-wheeling NHL. Dan Carcillo, Claude Giroux, Ville Leino and James van Riemsdyk are the kinds of role players champions are built on. Simon Gagne is back.

Then there are the Canadiens. I'm not sure what I like about them. Actually, I take that back. I know that there are three things I like about them: Hal Gill, whose ridiculous size and reach has a way of throwing elite forwards off their game (Gill used to completely confound Jaromir Jagr when Jagr was the best offensive player in the world 10 years ago, dominated Sidney Crosby against Pittsburgh and was a thorn in Detroit's offense in last season's Stanley Cup Final). PK Subban, who was called up from the minors during the playoffs and immediately became Montreal's best defenseman. I'm not sure what the 20-year-old's ceiling is but I know it's really high. I don't think the league has ever had a defenseman like him, one that can carry the puck up ice with speed and have the hands to spring a transition game while also having the body type to be a physical force in his own end. It's like he should be Pronger, only with the ability of Scott Niedermayer or Sandis Ozolinsh to carry the puck. And, of course, Jaroslav Halak. Everyone can fashionably point out to the weaknesses of the Penguins and Capitals in why they lost to the Canadiens (something I even did, largely because they were true) but it has to be noted that anything less than a super-human effort from Halak would have the Habs on the golf course right now. In Montreal's eight playoff wins, seven times Halak was the reason they won (and in the eighth, Game 7 against Pittsburgh, he destroyed the Penguins momentum after they righted themselves and seemed on the verge of a comeback).

Back in the 1990s, a new hockey term was created for teams that completely dominated in the offensive end, yet lost because of incredible goaltending: it's called being "Haseked," after Dominik Hasek. Well, the Capitals and Penguins were both Haseked by Halak, or Halaked, if you will.

How many playoff series can a team ride such incredible goaltending to victory? I don't know. But because of the injuries the Flyers have, I can't help but think that Halak has one more miracle in him. And while Leighton was able to slow down the Bruins for much of Games 6 and 7 in the previous round, Montreal has far more firepower than does Boston, led by the incredible postseason Michael Cammelleri is having.

I'm picking the Habs. In seven.

The Sports Guy staying at ESPN

Bill Simmons' deal with ESPN was set to expire this year and I was sort of hoping he would leave and start his own site. I wanted to read him unfiltered, allowed to crush media types without tip-toeing around colleagues at the Worldwide Leader, like he used to do before he made it big and had his own little site. People still would have read him religiously. They still would have downloaded his podcast. They still would have read his books.

(Or maybe I'm just speaking for myself.)

Alas, Simmons is set to sign a new deal with ESPN, per Deadspin. He no doubt will get millions on this deal, which says a lot about how media has transformed in the last decade. Given that in the last year Simmons has continued to bang out funny columns, done about four podcasts a week that in addition to Simmons' friends and ESPN colleagues are now featuring higher profile guests (Jim Nantz, Kevin McHale and David Duchovny are three recent examples and Nantz and McHale were major gets given the way he has joked about Nantz's contrived calls and crushed McHale's pathetic tenure as Timberwolves general manager), wrote a book that rose to the top of the New York Times bestsellers list and came up with the very concept of the widely acclaimed 30 for 30 series, it's probably money well spent.

NBA playoff predictions

Four teams left. Two glamour franchises. There is no doubt that David Stern is rooting for the Celtics and the Lakers in the conference finals. None. As it is, the remainder of the playoffs are going to be overshadowed by LeBron watch. ESPN is going to constantly fill their crawl with nonsense like "Friend of a friend of LeBron James' butler says he sources close to LeBron believe LeBron is undecided on what team to play for next season." The only way the league can avoid completely being engulfed by this is if the Celtics play the Lakers.

It's the greatest rivalry in professional sports championship history, edging out Yankees-Dodgers and Steelers-Cowboys. It's the one matchup right now that can successfully draw casual fans (although Lakers-Cavs probably would have as well). So if the Lakers or Celtics are in a must-win situation, watch for Team Stern to assign Dick Bavetta to the game.

Anyway, I think Stern's dream is going to come true. For the second time in three seasons, we're going to get Lakers-Celtics. I think the Lakers side of this is pretty self-explanatory. Yes, the Suns have something really special going. Their chemistry is unmatched. Steve Nash is playing better now than he ever has. So is Amar'e Stoudemire. The Lakers have no ability to take advantage of Nash's defensive shortcomings because Derek Fisher died last offseason and Jordan Farmar still hasn't been born. The Suns can hide Nash defensively this series. Offensively, Nash has to create a fast tempo because the Lakers don't like to play fast and don't play fast particularly effectively.

But I don't see how the Suns can matchup with all the length the Lakers have. Who is going to defend Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom? To say nothing of Kobe Bryant. There will be a couple of games when Kobe decides he has to be the hero and it will cost the Lakers but there will be more games when Phil Jackson simply forces him to feed the ball into the post and for that the Suns will have no answers. Lakers in six.

In the East, everyone is on the Orlando bandwagon. Defending conference champions, beat the Celtics in the playoffs last year, won 27 of their last 30 and blew through the first eight games of the playoffs like they were a porn star blowing Tiger Woods. But I'll point out that the Magic needed seven games to beat Boston last year and the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett in that series. You may have noticed that Garnett, after dragging his leg around all season, has come alive in the playoffs. So the tremendous inside edge Orlando had last season is gone. I'm also interested to see how Vince Carter does in a physical series. The novice Bobcats and heartless Hawks offered him no resistance. If you don't think the Celtics will pound him at opportunity, you're crazy. My money is on Carter rolling over like a dog after getting smacked a couple of times by Boston's stifling defense.

There's also something eerily familiar about the Magic. A year ago at this time, everyone was singing the praises of the Cavaliers after they had waltzed through the first two rounds. Then they ran into the Magic and lost. I could see something similar happening here. The Magic is playing so well that they could be primed for a fall. The Celtics have their core four of Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, a group that has won a championship together and may well have won another last season had Garnett's leg not failed him. I'm really looking forward to the Rondo-Jameer Nelson point guard matchup. Boston in six.

Dead day in sports

How is it that on a May Saturday, there are no NBA or NHL playoff games?

There also is no major tennis tournament or golf tournament going on. It's an all-out baseball day and there are some really intriguing games today.

Two of the AL's three best teams, Minnesota and New York, meet in the Bronx with an outstanding Francisco Liriano-Andy Pettitte pitching matchup.

The first game of the Nationals-Rockies doubleheader features the resurgent Livan Hernandez (4-1, 1.04 ERA) against the best pitcher of the early season, Ubaldo Jimenenz.

Tim Lincecum pitches for the Giants today and the last time he faced Houston, back on opening day, the Astros pathetic lineup looked like a little league team. Roy Oswalt goes for the Astros and after his stated willingness to accept a trade to a contender, he will no doubt be the fancy of all contenders come late July (the bet here is Drayton McLane holds on to him, believing the Astros are contenders even when they're 18 games out).

Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals against rookie sensation Mike Leake, who is 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA for the Reds. The Reds had closed the St. Louis lead in the NL Central to a half-game before falling last night. The slumping Albert Pujols hit a two-run homer last night, his first homer of the month, so one has to wonder if that is a sign that he is about to go on one of his patented tears where he destroys the ball for about eight weeks before settling in to a normal pattern of just hitting really well.

Reinsdorf can return the Bulls to global status with two bold (and expensive) moves

One thing I find fascinating about Phil Jackson is the way he has changed his look over the years. Above is a photo of him from his early days with the Bulls, for whom he was an assistant coach before taking over the head coaching position for the 1989-90 season. Look at how ridiculous Jackson looks in this photo. Compare that to the Jackson who looked like a sophisticated version of the Colonel when the Bulls went 72-10 in the '95-96 season before winning their fourth championship, and then the numerous manifestations of Jackson we've seen in Los Angeles, beginning when he shaved off the trademark moustache for the 2002-03 season. Somewhere along the line he had a soul patch and later a goatee, then even tried cutting down his hair really short and then gave coming his hair to the side a shot. Somewhere between the first and second Bulls three-peats he adopted glasses, and later he shed the normal glasses that merely aided his eyesight and went to the stylistic glasses that Hollywood types wear.

Make no mistake, Phil Jackson has embraced the Los Angeles lifestyle. He lives on the beach. He dates his boss's daughter, who appears to have had more plastic surgery than Liz Taylor and Michael Jackson combined and who once bared all for Playboy (may not want to click on this link if you're at work, or if your wife, girlfriend or mother is nearby...as if anyone actually reads this blog). He changes his look as often as Cameron Diaz changes her hairstyle (or as often as Dennis Rodman changes his hair color, and perhaps coaching Rodman for three years was the inspiration behind Jackson's chameleon approach to his look). Somewhere along the line, Phil Jackson became LA.

I point all of this out because it makes the mere idea of him ever leaving LA sound ridiculous. Yet if you ask me, that's exactly what Jerry Reinsdorf should seek to make happen. Reinsdorf is the owner of the Bulls, now as he was when Michael Jordan was drafted in 1984 and when Phil Jackson coached the team to six championships in eight years, presiding over Jordan and Scottie Pippen, from 1991-1998. The Bulls have been a completely irrelevant franchise since the day Jordan announced his second retirement in January of 1999. They've made a handful of playoff appearances, never gotten past the second round and gained their most attention for an epic seven-game series against the Celtics last season, a first round series that they lost.

In a sports-crazed market, the Bulls are in position to dominate for the next 10 years. They have one legitimate young building block in Derrick Rose, a true high quality energy/little things inside presence in Joakim Noah, plus a boatload of reasonably young capable supporting players like Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich and Taj Gibson. They're missing two things: a star player capable of making them a championship contender and a coach who knows how to create chemistry from his players, both in personality and in on-court play.

LeBron James is a free agent and everyone seems to agree that going to Chicago would be the best career move for him. Chicago is a huge market, he could be Jordan's successor for the franchise and with Rose, Noah and Deng in place, the Bulls would immediately become a championship contender with him on board (plus the Bulls have the cap room to sign another high-end player with LeBron; perhaps Amar'e Stoudemire or Chris Bosh?). The Bulls also have proven that they can be a worldwide power (not just an NBA power or an American sports power) if they have a global icon player, as anyone who remembers the 1990s recalls, which should put to bed the notion that LeBron needs to go to New York in order to maximize his global icon status. Chad Ford of the self-proclaimed Worldwide Leader reports that three different general managers believe he is headed to Chicago (who they got this information from is anyone's guess). The Bulls clearly have set themselves up to get LeBron.

Will they? I have no idea. Maybe LeBron is tired of the cold weather and decides he'd like to go somewhere warm (Miami? The Clippers?). Maybe he wants to go to the West to challenge Kobe (The Clippers? Portland? Dallas?). Maybe he wants to be in the Mecca (the Knicks). I don't know. But I do know that if Reinsdorf is going to open up the coffers for LeBron, it is a fruitless move if he doesn't bring along a high quality coach. And as much as everyone keeps reading the John Calipari tea leaves, the truly bold move would be for Reinsdorf to go and get Jackson.

There are plenty of reasons why Jackson wouldn't ever leave LA. Like, he likes being an LA guy. He's fucking the boss's daughter (who happens to be a team president). The weather is warm. He coaches Kobe who, as of now, has to be considered the best player in the league (which I state begrudgingly and acceptingly for the first time ever). There's a pretty good shot the Lakers are going to win it all this year, and they will likely enter next season as the favorite to win it all again.

On the flip side, Jackson's contract is up after this season. Jerry Buss has never been the biggest Phil fan because Buss prefers the glitz of Showtime to the methodical success of the Triangle (and because, you know, Phil is fucking his daughter). He also doesn't like paying head coaches a fortune and Jackson pulls in a reported $12 million per season. In fact, he's pretty much made it clear that he won't pay Jackson $12 million next season.

The boss's daughter has said the guy she's fucking will be coaching in the league next year, somewhere. Of course, she isn't sure where because of said father's reservations about paying him so much. So it's no given Jackson will return to the Lakers. The Lakers are also an increasingly aging team that only has another year or two to contend. And I can't believe Jackson actually likes having to deal with Ron Artest, who is incredibly signed for four more years after this one.

And, make no mistake, Jackson has an enormous ego. He's the greatest postseason coach of all-time and he knows it. No coach in the last 40 years has ever done a better job of getting players to play together. No coach has ever successfully forced players to hold their own egos in check for the good of the team better than Jackson (although he too has had his failings here, as the 2004 and 2008 NBA Finals displayed). Don't you think there is a large part of Jackson that revels in the fact that Jordan couldn't win a title until he came on, that the Shaq and Kobe show couldn't win a title until he came on, and that Kobe couldn't win a title without Shaq until Jackson returned from a one-season exile that Kobe fully endorsed? I do. And I also think Jackson loves the idea of coaching LeBron to championships when LeBron has yet to win one.

That would be four different superstars of sorts that Jackson will have lifted to championship glory that failed to do so without him (and I'm counting the 2009 Lakers as lifting Kobe to a previously unattained ring because Kobe never had won a championship as the main player on his team before then). And you know that appeals to Jackson's enormous ego.

Jackson stated a few weeks ago that he hoped to return to the Lakers. Of course, he also said he was only 90% certain that if he was coaching it would be with the Lakers, leaving the door slightly ajar to coach elsewhere, much like Jordan did when he said he was 99.9% sure he would never play again when he retired in 1999, only to return in the autumn of 2001. And while I believe his preference is to coach the Lakers, what if the Lakers demand he reduces his salary significantly and what if the Bulls offer him the moon and LeBron?

I think Jackson would jump at that chance, so long as he can get over living on the beach and be willing to readjust to Chicago winters. His problems when he left Chicago were never with Reinsdorf; they were with former general manager Jerry Krause who no longer is with the Bulls (amazingly, Reinsdorf has hired Krause as a scout for the White Sox baseball team). The man running the front office is John Paxson, who started for the first two of Jackson's six championship teams with the Bulls, hit the championship-winning shot for the third championship team and was an assistant coach under Jackson on the fourth before giving up coaching because of how much time it consumed. Point being, I'm pretty sure Jackson wouldn't have any reservations about working for Reinsdorf and Paxson.

If I'm Reinsdorf, I'm breaking out my 1998 rolodex and calling Jackson's people (is he still represented by Todd Musburger?) and telling him that he is going to be offered a three-year, $45 million deal with a fourth-year option for another $15 million, with a $1 million bonus for reaching the NBA Finals and another $1 million bonus for winning the championship. The deal is entirely contingent upon signing LeBron. And once July 1 rolls around, I'm rolling out the red carpet for LeBron, offering him the max, letting him know that Jackson will be the coach if he signs and letting him know that they'll spend the money on another player as well (Stoudemire? Bosh?). And if everyone agrees, a joint news conference will be held on July 9 or July 10 introducing Jackson as the coach, LeBron as the new No. 6 on the team and (insert second player here) as the new low-post scorer.

(A few days later, I'm quietly announcing a 20% increase in ticket prices too.)

The money spent on those three would be approximately what Reinsdorf spent on Jordan, Jackson and Pippen in the 1997-98 season (incredible, given that it's 12 years later and salaries have inflated; also goes to show just how comically underpaid Pippen was) so it's not like Reinsdorf hasn't paid this kind of money before. Besides, he'll more than recoup that money and then some with increased ticket sales, increased jersey sales and deeper playoff runs (and, perhaps, the sale of championship merchandise).

It makes sense. And I understand that there's a lot of moving parts here, like Buss not offering Jackson enough to stay in LA or LeBron's free agency tour, but if Reinsdorf has any business sense and any interest in returning the Bulls to the glory they once knew--when they were not just the league's glamour franchise but the world's glamour franchise--he'll do everything he possibly can to make this happen.

Will he do it? Um, I doubt it.

Cavs mismanaged the LeBron era

In the aftermath of the Cavaliers elimination from the playoffs, I think it's worth looking back and noting that horrible job the front office did of building a team around LeBron James. (And I fully acknowledge that LeBron had a lousy series against Boston, although if it's true that his elbow was often numb it would explain why he turned the ball over so much). And I say this despite being truly impressed by the way they had put various pieces around him.

Of course, I was wrong.

The coaching from Mike Brown was terrible. The offense never developed at any point during his tenure and his rotations were always, um, curious. To be kind. He never seemed to understand how to use different players or when. The offense too often was to give the ball to LeBron and hope for the best.

The front office tried to build an instant-contender around LeBron rather than try to build a strong nucleus of young players that could grow with LeBron. Thus, LeBron never had a legitimate all-star with him. Instead he had former stars who were in their 30s (like Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O'Neal this season, Ben Wallace a couple years ago) or spare parts playing key roles (Delonte West, Mo Williams, Boobie Gibson, Damon Jones, Ricky Davis, Drew Gooden, Eric Snow). Or he had solid fourth or fifth men playing the role of a No. 2 man (okay, he only had one of these, Zydrunas Ilgauskas). The Cavaliers repeatedly failed to find strong young players to complement LeBron, instead overspending on those in their decline or relying on spare parts.

The one exception to this was Carlos Boozer. Would the Cavs have a championship by now if they had a LeBron-Boozer nucleus these last few years? Very possible. But the Cavs stupidly didn't exercise an option on Boozer, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent because Boozer had allegedly promised former owner Gordon Gund he would re-sign. The joke was on Cleveland; Boozer went to Utah instead and it took the only legitimate No. 2 player LeBron has ever had.

I'm interested in tracking what happens in Oklahoma City these next few years. While the Cavaliers tried to surround LeBron with veterans who really had no business playing such a big role, OKC general manager Sam Presti has opted to try and surround Kevin Durant with good young players who can grow with him. LeBron never had equivalents of Jeff Green or Russell Westbrook. How will it work for OKC? It has to work better than it did for Cleveland, right?

It looks good on Moyer

Watching Phillies-Brewers and it's Throwback Jersey Night at Miller Park. The Phillies are wearing their light blue road uniforms circa the Von Hayes era:

The only player who looks normal in those goofy threads? Jamie Moyer, who is so old that he actually played against the Phillies when they wore those jerseys (you can look it up). Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and the rest of the Phillies look like clowns in those jerseys. Not Moyer. He was born to wear 1980s bad uniforms.

Boston fans now know what Yankees fans feel like

The Boston Bruins have done it: they have blown a 3-0 series lead and lost to the Flyers. Kind of funny and ironic that just six years after the Red Sox overcame a 3-0 deficit to beat the Yankees, Boston's hockey team blows such a lead.

The Flyers become just the third team in NHL history and the fourth team in North American professional sports to overcome a 3-0 series deficit to win a playoff series. Now we'll see how they handle the growing legend that is Jaroslav Halak.