Not sure what I'll remember most out of Saturday's play at the Masters. Phil Mickelson's incredible consecutive eagles? Tiger Woods' shaky front-nine followed by a strong back-nine? Fred Couples' incredible shot? Lee Westwood playing like he didn't have a care in the world in maintaining the lead?
Westwood owns a one-stroke lead over Mickelson and is four up on Tiger and K.J. Choi. Looking forward to see if Tiger has a Sunday miracle in him, if Westwood can handle the Sunday pressure and if Lefty can avoid the Sunday back-nine collapse that has defined his career (even with the two Green Jackets he has won).
April 10, 2010
No more no-hitter
And there goes the no-hitter. Kelly Shoppach's single to left with two out in the eighth breaks it up with the Yankees still leading the Rays, 8-0.
That was CC Sabathia's 111th pitch and, it appears, his final one. Joe Girardi is on his way to the mound to bring in David Robertson.
That was CC Sabathia's 111th pitch and, it appears, his final one. Joe Girardi is on his way to the mound to bring in David Robertson.
No-hitter brewing, what's a manager to do?
CC Sabathia has a no-hitter into the eighth inning for the Yankees today in Tampa but he's already over 100 pitches. If he pitches a no-hitter, he's going to end up at around 120 pitches, an incredible amount at any time during the season but even more so in one's second start of the season.
Given that the Yankees are up 10-0, I'm guessing Joe Girardi is hoping he allows a hit so that he can pull him out of the game.
Given that the Yankees are up 10-0, I'm guessing Joe Girardi is hoping he allows a hit so that he can pull him out of the game.
April 9, 2010
Big Ben to get off, will he learn from these situations?
Sources tell ESPN's Kelly Naqi that charges of sexual assault will not be brought forth against Ben Roethlisberger. It will be confirmed Monday by District Attorney Fred Bright in a 2 pm ET news conference. So Big Ben has ducked criminal charges the way he ducks oncoming pass rushers. Good for him.
Still outstanding is a civil suit filed last year stemming from an alleged sexual assault that allegedly occurred, allegedly in Lake Tahoe. Allegedly. And one assumes that this alleged incident in Milledgeville, Ga. isn't fully behind him, as the alleged 20-year-old victim may well bring a civil suit against Roethlisberger as well.
How will Roger Goodell react? My guess is he gives Big Ben a zero-tolerance policy going forward with any further misconduct resulting in a four-game suspension. After all, if there are no charges filed, I can't see Goodell suspending him. That being said, one cannot help but wonder if a second allegation, true or not, will cause Roethlisberger to change his lifestyle going forward.
Roethlisberger is, for my money, one of the four best quarterbacks in the NFL (along with, in no particular order, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees). He is one of only two active quarterbacks to win more than one Super Bowl. He is on his way to a Hall of Fame career while playing for an NFL jewel franchise, in a market that cares about its team religiously. Sure, he can have any girl in Pittsburgh that he wants but maybe going forward he will be a little smarter about how he goes about his sexual conquests?
Big Ben is single and thus is free to bed as many girls as he would like but he needs to at least be smart enough to know that with two allegations having already been made against him, more could be on the horizon if he keeps going out and sleeping with women. Sure, it may be innocent. But maybe women now will seek an opportunity to cash in with civil suits or, at the very least, hush money. It may be time for Big Ben to stop drinking like a champion and fucking like a champion and to instead maybe think about staying in. At least for a while.
He didn't learn after the Tahoe civil suit was brought forth upon him. Maybe he will learn after ducking criminal charges.
Tiger is lurking
Lee Westwood was in position to take a commanding lead in the Masters, at nine-under through 10 holes of the second round today. Instead, he failed to dominate the back-nine as he had the front-nine and ended up losing a stroke on the final seven holes, placing him in a tie for the lead with Ian Poulter at eight-under through 36 holes.
What does this all mean? Well you know what it means. It means Tiger Woods is going to win this thing, isn't he? Another solid round today has him six-under through 36 holes, tied for third with Phil Mickelson, Anthony Kim, K.J. Choi and Ricky Barnes. I know I speak for all when I say that the world hopes Saturday's play leads to Tiger and Phil being paired together in the final grouping on Sunday. It's what we all root for in every major, and that was before Tiger's world turned upside down on Thanksgiving.
My preferred final foursome: Tiger, Phil, K.J. Choi and Ian Poulter.
What does this all mean? Well you know what it means. It means Tiger Woods is going to win this thing, isn't he? Another solid round today has him six-under through 36 holes, tied for third with Phil Mickelson, Anthony Kim, K.J. Choi and Ricky Barnes. I know I speak for all when I say that the world hopes Saturday's play leads to Tiger and Phil being paired together in the final grouping on Sunday. It's what we all root for in every major, and that was before Tiger's world turned upside down on Thanksgiving.
My preferred final foursome: Tiger, Phil, K.J. Choi and Ian Poulter.
April 8, 2010
Hello, World
The commercial? Insulting. Tasteless. Creepy.
The golf game? Still there.
Tiger's performance today at the Masters basically said the exact same thing he said to us in 1996:
"Hello, World."
April 7, 2010
Stating my case against Pete Rose
The other day I was having a discussion about Pete Rose's Hall of Fame candidacy. Many people seem to be of the belief that Rose, baseball's all-time career hits leader with 4,256, should be in the Hall of Fame in spite of his lifetime ban for betting on baseball. They believe it should mentioned on his plaque. They believe a Hall of Fame that honors baseball's best players isn't complete without Pete Rose. They believe that he should be inducted because he never bet on baseball as a player.
I staunchly believe that Rose should never be inducted into the Hall of Fame. It is something I will go to my grave believing. I hope he is never reinstated. I hope he is never inducted. My discussion the other day prompted me to list the reasons why...
1. Anyone who bets on baseball is banned for life and is ineligible for induction into the Hall of Fame. Pete Rose bet on baseball.
It is a matter of Major League Baseball Rule 21C that any player who bets on baseball is banned for life. Rose bet on baseball. 1989's Dowd Report, the findings of John M. Dowd on Rose's gambling on baseball and specifically on Cincinnati Reds games, concludes that Rose did in fact bet on baseball games in 1985, 1986 and 1987. Rose denied having ever bet on baseball throughout the investigation, which is acknowledged in the Dowd Report. However, in the January 12, 2004 issue of Sports Illustrated, an excerpt of Rose's newly released book in which Rose admitted to betting on baseball.
The Hall of Fame doesn't allow anyone on the suspended list to be inducted. Rule 3E of the Baseball Writers Associate of America's election guidelines says it about as simply as it can be said:
"Any player on Baseball's ineligible list shall not be an eligible candidate."
Rule 6C of the Veterans' Committee's election guidelines essentially repeats the same line:
"Any person designated by the Office of the Commissioner of Major League Baseball as ineligible shall not be an eligible candidate."
So if Pete Rose bet on baseball, as the Dowd Report concluded in 1989 and Rose himself admitted in 2004, if Rose is banned for life by baseball and if the Hall of Fame voting guidelines says any player banned for life in ineligible, then Pete Rose shouldn't be inducted (nor should Joe Jackson or any of the other members of the Black Sox scandal of the thrown 1919 World Series). What good is a rule if it isn't enforced? Speaking of which...
2. What good is a rule if one is allowed to break it?
Rules are in place for a reason. And there has to be a deterrant that prevents people from breaking rules, not just in baseball but in all walks of life. For example, one of the deterrants to killing another is life in jail or, in some states, being sentenced to death. In baseball, the deterrant to betting on baseball is a lifetime suspension and, consequently, being ineligible for the Hall of Fame.
If Rose is reinstated and ultimately ends up in the Hall of Fame, what good is the rule? Any current player could bet on baseball with no fear of severe punishment. If Rose is inducted into the Hall of Fame, what's to stop Player X with Hall of Fame credentials from betting on baseball if he knows the precedent has been set that would allow him back into the game and would allow him into the Hall of Fame?
Rose's ineligibility (and Joe Jackson's, and that of Lefty Williams, Swede Risberg, Buck Weaver, Eddie Cicotte, Happy Felsch, Chick Gandil and Fred McMullin, and those other gamblers suspended during Kennesaw Mountain Landis' reign as commissioner) isn't just a suspension of the player but also a symbol of what will happen to anyone else who engages in such activity. Lifting Rose's suspension and opening the Hall of Fame doors to open allows any player who wishes to engaging in betting on baseball to do so without fear or everlasting consequence.
3. Pete Rose agreed to the lifetime ban.
I always felt that if Pete Rose truly believed that he didn't bet on baseball, he never should have agreed to the lifetime ban. He should have fought the good fight until the very end to clear his good name. Of course, he didn't do that, largely because he couldn't do that because he knew he bet on baseball. According to the agreement between Rose and Commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti, signed by both parties on Aug. 23, 1989, Rose received a copy of the 225-page Dowd Report on May 11, 1989. Thus, so long as he actually read it (which I believe to be a questionable proposition at best, though I'm sure his attorneys read it over), he was fully aware of its contents (though, at the time, he disputed the accuracy of the report). The agreement states that a hearing was scheduled for Rose on May 25, 1989 but on May 19, requested and received a postponement of that hearing until June 26, 1989.
The hearing never took place because Rose filed a civil suit, a case which also was never heard. Rose knew there was no way to defend himself because, as he acknowledged in his 2004 book, he bet on baseball and the Dowd Report findings and evidence was so overwhelmingly supportive of that conclusion that he couldn't possibly lie his way out of it in a hearing. So he instead agreed to a lifetime ban in exchange for Giamatti's agreeing to not conclude one way or the other as to whether or not Rose bet on baseball. From the signed agreement:
"Peter Edward Rose will conclude these proceedings before the Commissioner without a hearing and the Commissioner will not make any formal findings or determinations on any matter including without limitation the allegation that Peter Edward Rose bet on any Major League Baseball game."
Thus, baseball never formally concluded that Rose bet on baseball. However, Rose formally agreed to be banned for life. From his agreement with Giamatti:
"Peter Edward Rose is hereby declared permanently ineligible in accordance with Major League Rule 21 and placed on the Ineligible List."
Rose spent the subsequent 15 years denying that he had bet on baseball. He even applied for reinstatement in both 1992 and 1997, as the agreement with Giamatti said he could. The statement never said Rose would be reinstated, however, and to date he has not been. Correctly so, for reasons I outlined in my second point.
If Rose did not bet on baseball, he never should have agreed to a lifetime ban, even under the stipulation that the commissioner would not formally rule that Rose had bet on baseball. (Giamatti's personal statement, released on Aug. 24, 1989, makes it quite clear that Giamatti believed Rose to have bet on baseball and on Reds games, though he didn't say something as clear as "I believe Pete Rose bet on baseball games and on Cincinnati Reds games.")
Anyway, back to my point: Pete Rose agreed to a lifetime suspension. He agreed to be ineligible for the Hall of Fame. He agreed to the right to apply for reinstatement. He agreed that he would not be guaranteed reinstatement, as per Major League Baseball's Rule 15C that is referenced in his agreement with Giamatti. So tell me, on what basis does Rose complain about his fate when it was fate he agreed to in a signed legal document on August 23, 1989?
4. Pete Rose most likely bet on baseball as both a player and a manager.
I often hear the argument that Rose should be inducted into the Hall of Fame on the basis of the fact that he bet on baseball as a manager and not as a player, and thus his accolades as a player should get him enshrined. I've always found that to be an incredibly weak argument but I'll go along with it for the purposes of this essay. Here's the problem: the Dowd Report concludes that Rose bet on baseball at least as far back as 1985. Rose was still an active player that season (in fact, that was the season in which he set the all-time hits record) and remained active through the 1986 season (he was both a player and manager those seasons, the last of its kind in Major League Baseball).
Wrote Dowd in Section II of his report entitled "Summary of Report":
"As discussed in Section III, during the 1985 and 1986 seasons, Rose placed bets on baseball with Ron Peters, a bookmaker in Franklin, Ohio. Although Rose placed his bets with Peters primarily through Tommy Gioiosa, on several occasions Rose placed bets on baseball games, including Cincinnati Reds games, directly with Peters."
From Section III:
"[Ron] Peters testified that he took bets from Gioiosa and Pete Rose during the period from late 1984 to late 1986, when he stopped taking Rose's action. He stated that Pete Rose bet on professional football, college basketball, and Major League baseball. He specifically stated that Pete Rose bet on Major League baseball games in 1985, 1986 and 1987, including games played by the Cincinnati Reds while Pete Rose was both a player and manager."
Dowd clearly believes Rose bet on baseball in 1985 and 1986, but it must be stated for the record that the hard evidence he provides neither confirms nor refutes that. The evidence without fail confirms that Rose did bet from 1987 on, his first season as a retired player and solely a manager.
5. Pete Rose's character is...ummmm...questionable at best.
Given Rose's accolades as a player, I have heard the argument that a shrine honoring the greatest players of all-time isn't complete with Rose. Maybe so. However, Hall of Fame voters are supposed to consider more than just standard of play when determining if a player is worthy of enshrinement. From the BBWAA's voting guidelines:
"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."
Let me reporst those guidelines by underlining some of the keys beyond the "player's record" and "playing ability."
"Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."
Tell me, how, exactly, has Pete Rose demonstrated integrity and character?
By betting on baseball games for at least three years with sworn testimony that it happened for five, as both a player and manager?
By lying to the world about betting on baseball for 15 years, from the beginning of Major League Baseball's investigation in 1989 until his admission in 2004?
By admitting to betting on baseball by writing a book, allowing himself to profit off his admission?
By releasing the book the same week as the 2004 Hall of Fame election results were announcing, taking away from the spotlight that those enshrinees (Dennis Eckersley and Paul Molitor) deserved?
By spending every Hall of Fame weekend in Cooperstown, down the street from the Hall of Fame, charging people for autographs and photographis like a circus clown?
By, while a manager in 1988, shoving umpire Dave Pallon over a disputed call and receiving the longest ever suspension to a manager for on-field conduct?
By filing false income tax returns?
That seems like a guy completely devoid of character and integrity to me, and while I fully acknowledge that there are plenty of players who have earned enshrinement despite character flaws, I also think it must be pointed out that Rose's playing record alone doesn't automatically qualify him for the Hall of Fame, as defined by the voting guidelines.
So, tell me again, why should Rose be reinstated? What should he be in the Hall of Fame?
Yankees take 2 out of 3
The Yankees ended up tacking on another run and beat the Red Sox in 10 innings, 3-1.
As concerned as everyone in Boston is about David Ortiz (who did drive in the lone Sox run tonight), they should probably be worried about Jonathan Papelbon as well. He really struggled down the stretch last season and lost the game tonight when he surrendered the game-winning homer to Curtis Granderson.
As concerned as everyone in Boston is about David Ortiz (who did drive in the lone Sox run tonight), they should probably be worried about Jonathan Papelbon as well. He really struggled down the stretch last season and lost the game tonight when he surrendered the game-winning homer to Curtis Granderson.
9 innings in less than 3 hours
Amazing! A Yankees-Red Sox game that completes nine innings in less than three hours!
Alas, it's 1-1 and going into extras. They could play all night.
Alas, it's 1-1 and going into extras. They could play all night.
Waino is bueno
Adam Wainwright's line tonight:
7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 95 pitches
The Cardinals are well on their way to victory over the Reds.
7 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 95 pitches
The Cardinals are well on their way to victory over the Reds.
Rich Harden...ugh
His line tonight for Texas against Toronto:
3 2/3 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, 90 pitches
Not what Jon Daniels signed up for. At least he came out of it without an injury (rare for him) but...yikes.
3 2/3 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 8 K, 90 pitches
Not what Jon Daniels signed up for. At least he came out of it without an injury (rare for him) but...yikes.
Good debut
The Red Sox have to be happy with John Lackey's first start for them and first start in the rivalry with the Yankees:
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 100 pitches
The Red Sox defense behind him was excellent as well.
6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 100 pitches
The Red Sox defense behind him was excellent as well.
Loving the field reporter
Watching the Yankees-Red Sox game on NESN tonight (hate the Yankees announcers on YES, especially Michael Kay, and avoid the ESPN family of networks whenever possible). Sox fans have to be thankful for field reporter Heidi Watney:
They definitely upgraded when Hazel Mae left for MLB Network.
Tka-Choke
Not exactly Henri Richard.
Reds need a new manager
Let's see...the Reds have the following pitchers in their early 20s:
Mike Leake (22), Aroldis Chapman (22), Homer Bailey (23), Johnny Cueto (24).
Their manager is Dusty Baker, who has made a career of burning out the arms of young pitchers (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Russ Ortiz and Edinson Volquez are four good examples).
After seeing Cueto labor around the field after misplayed a slow-roller tonight against the Cardinals, I was shocked to see that Dusty and his trainer didn't even go out to check on their talented young right-hander. Apparently they weren't worried at all.
For the Reds' sake and Cueto's sake, I hope Dusty was right and that Cueto is alright but imagine if it was a reoccurrence of the back injury he suffered in spring training and it caused him to alter his motion to compensate and he hurt his arm in the process. I'm frightened just thinking about it. Seeing this spectacle only reinforced my view that the best thing that can happen to the Reds and their numerous high-ceiling young arms would be a 10-24 start that leads to Dusty being fired immediately.
Mike Leake (22), Aroldis Chapman (22), Homer Bailey (23), Johnny Cueto (24).
Their manager is Dusty Baker, who has made a career of burning out the arms of young pitchers (Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Russ Ortiz and Edinson Volquez are four good examples).
After seeing Cueto labor around the field after misplayed a slow-roller tonight against the Cardinals, I was shocked to see that Dusty and his trainer didn't even go out to check on their talented young right-hander. Apparently they weren't worried at all.
For the Reds' sake and Cueto's sake, I hope Dusty was right and that Cueto is alright but imagine if it was a reoccurrence of the back injury he suffered in spring training and it caused him to alter his motion to compensate and he hurt his arm in the process. I'm frightened just thinking about it. Seeing this spectacle only reinforced my view that the best thing that can happen to the Reds and their numerous high-ceiling young arms would be a 10-24 start that leads to Dusty being fired immediately.
Kentucky's whole team declares for the NBA draft
Can we please get rid of the one-and-done rule? David Stern, in the interests of both the NBA and college basketball, needs to raise the minimum age limit another year. A whopping five Kentucky Wildcats predictably declared for the NBA draft today, including freshmen John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton. Also declaring was junior Patrick Patterson.
Wonder how Kentucky fans are feeling right now. Their loaded team would have been the concensus preseason No. 1 had the four freshman returned next season. Instead, they'll be reliant almost entirely on this year's incoming class to lead them somewhere in 2011. Tell me how this is good for college basketball.
Wonder how Kentucky fans are feeling right now. Their loaded team would have been the concensus preseason No. 1 had the four freshman returned next season. Instead, they'll be reliant almost entirely on this year's incoming class to lead them somewhere in 2011. Tell me how this is good for college basketball.
Maybe the $126 million wasn't a complete waste
Since the 2009 All-Star Break, STATS LLC informs on their Twitter page that formerly washed up lefthander Barry Zito is 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA. He wasn't Lincecum good yesterday but he was pretty impressive in shutting out the Astros over six innings.
The Giants swept the Astros with a 10-4 win today. Houston could well lose 100 games this year.
The Giants swept the Astros with a 10-4 win today. Houston could well lose 100 games this year.
Manu staying in San Antonio
The Spurs are giving pending unrestricted free agent Manu Ginobili a three-year extension worth $38.9 million. Not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, Ginobili has become a fixture in San Antonio, so much so that they almost certainly will retire his number some day. He has been a mainstay on three championship teams, selflessly played whatever role the team has needed, even coming off the bench. And while he has had a lot of injuries the last couple of years, he seems to be bouncing back and rounding into form. He's generally been great since mid-January and in the past week has had back-to-back 43- and 32-point games against the two teams that were in the NBA Finals last season (and the Spurs won both games).
But Ginobili is 32, the Spurs are an old team and it seems like the championship window is closed. Tim Duncan is 33, Tony Parker is 27 and newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess are 29 and 35. They are almost certainly going to finish sixth in the rough-and-tumble West, a far-cry from their usual placing in the top two or three.
Then again, maybe they are thinking that they have played well lately, Ginobili seems to be back in form, Parker came back from his injury last night and the Lakers seem vulnerable right now. Can they make another run this year? Next year (with Ginobili back to his old self)? I hope so but I have my doubts.
But Ginobili is 32, the Spurs are an old team and it seems like the championship window is closed. Tim Duncan is 33, Tony Parker is 27 and newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess are 29 and 35. They are almost certainly going to finish sixth in the rough-and-tumble West, a far-cry from their usual placing in the top two or three.
Then again, maybe they are thinking that they have played well lately, Ginobili seems to be back in form, Parker came back from his injury last night and the Lakers seem vulnerable right now. Can they make another run this year? Next year (with Ginobili back to his old self)? I hope so but I have my doubts.
April 6, 2010
Classic
Really enjoyed tonight's Jazz-OKC game but, let's be honest, Durant was fouled.
(I know I'm not the first person on the Dubya-Dubya-Dubya to say that.)
(I know I'm not the first person on the Dubya-Dubya-Dubya to say that.)
April 5, 2010
Veterans or one-and-dones?
Neither Duke nor Butler had the best players in the nation this year. There were no Evan Turners or John Walls to be seen. What both teams had were talented, hard-nosed, NCAA Tournament-tested veterans. Maybe these guys aren't going to dazzle in the NBA but they're tough, gritty, clutch players who are battle-tested and play well together.
And I don't know if you noticed but freshman dominated teams haven't exactly been winning national championships. Nor are teams led by freshman. In the one-and-done era that began with the 2005-2006 campaign, not a single one-and-done player has been a top-level player on a championship team and, really, only one national champion have ever been led by a freshman.
Yes, there have been freshmen to play starring roles on Final Four teams. Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thomas all played starring roles since the one-and-done era began and, going further back, Michigan's Fab Five were all freshmen starters when they reached the championship game in 1991. But as far as winning national championships?
There are many teams that won national championships with freshmen playing key roles but the list of teams whose top player (or perhaps second best player can be included as well) really begins and ends with 2003 Syracuse, led by Carmelo Anthony. All of the other national championships--all of them--have been won by teams whose core had played together for a couple years, like Florida's back-to-back championship squads and this Duke team. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Brian Zoubek have been together for three years and it showed.
Anthony and Syracuse proved that a freshman can lead a team to a national championship. Derrick Rose had all but won it for Memphis in 2008 before they suffered one of the greatest collapses in college basketball history in blowing a nine-point lead down the stretch before falling to Kansas in overtime. But history shows that the one-and-done, freshman-dominated mentality generally doesn't translate to winning national championships.
John Calipari has been the master of the one-and-done star, with Rose in 2008 and Tyreke Evans in 2009 leading his Memphis team to the NCAA Tournament. This year, his Kentucky squad was led by freshmen Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe. But while he seems to have one of the very best players each year, the strategy hasn't yet yielded a national championship. Instead, it's teams that play together that are winning the hardware.
Makes one wonder if coaches should target kids that are going to stay three or four years to try and build a cohesive group that grows together over time, like these Blue Devils were, or if they should continue going for the one-and-done kids that seem to collapse under the pressure. O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant, for all of their talent, didn't even get to the Sweet 16 in their one year before bolting for the NBA. Scheyer and Singler lost in the first round in their first Tournament together and now they're national champions.
At the very least, it's something to think about.
And I don't know if you noticed but freshman dominated teams haven't exactly been winning national championships. Nor are teams led by freshman. In the one-and-done era that began with the 2005-2006 campaign, not a single one-and-done player has been a top-level player on a championship team and, really, only one national champion have ever been led by a freshman.
Yes, there have been freshmen to play starring roles on Final Four teams. Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thomas all played starring roles since the one-and-done era began and, going further back, Michigan's Fab Five were all freshmen starters when they reached the championship game in 1991. But as far as winning national championships?
There are many teams that won national championships with freshmen playing key roles but the list of teams whose top player (or perhaps second best player can be included as well) really begins and ends with 2003 Syracuse, led by Carmelo Anthony. All of the other national championships--all of them--have been won by teams whose core had played together for a couple years, like Florida's back-to-back championship squads and this Duke team. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Brian Zoubek have been together for three years and it showed.
Anthony and Syracuse proved that a freshman can lead a team to a national championship. Derrick Rose had all but won it for Memphis in 2008 before they suffered one of the greatest collapses in college basketball history in blowing a nine-point lead down the stretch before falling to Kansas in overtime. But history shows that the one-and-done, freshman-dominated mentality generally doesn't translate to winning national championships.
John Calipari has been the master of the one-and-done star, with Rose in 2008 and Tyreke Evans in 2009 leading his Memphis team to the NCAA Tournament. This year, his Kentucky squad was led by freshmen Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe. But while he seems to have one of the very best players each year, the strategy hasn't yet yielded a national championship. Instead, it's teams that play together that are winning the hardware.
Makes one wonder if coaches should target kids that are going to stay three or four years to try and build a cohesive group that grows together over time, like these Blue Devils were, or if they should continue going for the one-and-done kids that seem to collapse under the pressure. O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant, for all of their talent, didn't even get to the Sweet 16 in their one year before bolting for the NBA. Scheyer and Singler lost in the first round in their first Tournament together and now they're national champions.
At the very least, it's something to think about.
Gordon Hayward almost won it
If Gordon Hayward's shot at the buzzer had fallen, where would that shot had ranked in NCAA Tournament history? I say it would have been the greatest shot of all-time, passing the Derek Whittenberg-Lorenzo Charles play in the 1983 championship, the Laettner shot against Kentucky in '91 and whatever other shot you want to throw into the equation.
And you know what? When he fired from midcourt, I thought it was going in.
Great game, a capper to a really exciting tournament that was filled with close games and last second shots and upsets. It would have been really cool to see Butler win it for themselves and for all the mid-majors but Duke is a deserving champion.
Why on earth did Brian Zoubek intentionally miss that free throw? If he makes it, the worst that can happen for Duke is overtime. Had Hayward prayer been answered, Zoubek couldn't ever return to Durham. He would've had to drop out of school immediately and miss the team flight home.
And I'll repeat my theme for the night: Gus Johnson should have been calling that and everyone knows it.
UPDATE (8:51 pm): Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch sums up the final call by Jim Nantz perfectly on his Twitter feed: "As far as dramatic big-game calls go, there's Al Michaels with 'Do you believe in miracles? YES!' And then there's Jim Nantzzzzzzz."
And you know what? When he fired from midcourt, I thought it was going in.
Great game, a capper to a really exciting tournament that was filled with close games and last second shots and upsets. It would have been really cool to see Butler win it for themselves and for all the mid-majors but Duke is a deserving champion.
Why on earth did Brian Zoubek intentionally miss that free throw? If he makes it, the worst that can happen for Duke is overtime. Had Hayward prayer been answered, Zoubek couldn't ever return to Durham. He would've had to drop out of school immediately and miss the team flight home.
And I'll repeat my theme for the night: Gus Johnson should have been calling that and everyone knows it.
UPDATE (8:51 pm): Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch sums up the final call by Jim Nantz perfectly on his Twitter feed: "As far as dramatic big-game calls go, there's Al Michaels with 'Do you believe in miracles? YES!' And then there's Jim Nantzzzzzzz."
Missing Gus
One-point national championship game in the final minute of play and Gus Johnson isn't involved. Sad.
Give me Vaughn!
With Duke and Butler separated by one point at halftime, this game seems destined to come down to the final minutes. Can CBS please, please, please bring in Gus Johnson to close this thing out for Jim Nantz?
Instead of getting a frantic, in-the-moment, memorable call from Gus, we'll instead get some thoroughly rehearsed play on words from Nantz to announce which ever team wins the championship. You know, a line Nantz has probably spent the last two days in his Indianapolis hotel room planning and practicing. Somehow, the suits at CBS are okay with this even though every basketball fan alive isn't.
If I'm the NCAA, I make Gus Johnson being the Final Four announcer mandatory for CBS to keep the television rights after this year.
Instead of getting a frantic, in-the-moment, memorable call from Gus, we'll instead get some thoroughly rehearsed play on words from Nantz to announce which ever team wins the championship. You know, a line Nantz has probably spent the last two days in his Indianapolis hotel room planning and practicing. Somehow, the suits at CBS are okay with this even though every basketball fan alive isn't.
If I'm the NCAA, I make Gus Johnson being the Final Four announcer mandatory for CBS to keep the television rights after this year.
Duke 33, Butler 32 - HALFTIME
Remember when I said Duke would control the offensive glass? Forget that. They have just two in the first half while Butler has 12. TWELVE! Avery Jukes has been the first half sparkplug for Butler with 10 points. He hadn't scored in double-figures since December 5!
So far, so good for Butler, who is within one halftime even though Gordon Hayward has just four points. Looking forward to the second half.
So far, so good for Butler, who is within one halftime even though Gordon Hayward has just four points. Looking forward to the second half.
Enough with the cable cam!
CBS spends the dollars on a cable cam for the Final Four and national championship game, then feels like it has to show live action from that camera. It doesn't work.
Please, give us the regular midcourt camera for the live action and save the cable cam for timeouts and replays.
Please, give us the regular midcourt camera for the live action and save the cable cam for timeouts and replays.
Tim Lincecum: Wow
Lots of aces started on opening day. None were better than Tim Lincecum. The Astros were so overmatched that they may as well have been a bunch of little leaguers. Seven shutout innings, four hits, seven strikeouts, no walks.
The reigning NL Cy Young winner and the reigning NL MVP both began their defense of those awards with a bang today. Albert Pujols had four hits, two homers, three runs batted in and four runs scored.
The reigning NL Cy Young winner and the reigning NL MVP both began their defense of those awards with a bang today. Albert Pujols had four hits, two homers, three runs batted in and four runs scored.
Pregame show weirdness
Anyone else find it a little odd that CBS does a two-hour pregame show for the Final Four but just a 15-minute quickie for the national championship?
This would be like the networks rolling out all the stops with a four-hour pregame show for the NFC and AFC Championship games but then going with their regular hour-long show for the Super Bowl.
I understand the reasoning--no way a network can give up such time for a pregame show on a weeknight--but it's still a little odd, isn't it?
Looking forward to the FOX and CBS four-hour long pregame show in advance of the conference championship games in January.
This would be like the networks rolling out all the stops with a four-hour pregame show for the NFC and AFC Championship games but then going with their regular hour-long show for the Super Bowl.
I understand the reasoning--no way a network can give up such time for a pregame show on a weeknight--but it's still a little odd, isn't it?
Looking forward to the FOX and CBS four-hour long pregame show in advance of the conference championship games in January.
CBS loves Luther Vandross and so does Duke
I think CBS is far too proud of their whole "One Shining Moment" highlight package they air at the end of each NCAA Tournament but with the national championship game set to tip in less than an hour, I figured I would post all three of Duke's CBS tributes. And if Butler had ever won a national championship, I would post theirs too.
The 1991 and 1992 Duke teams were like a traveling circus with Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Brian Davis, Thomas Hill and Antonio Lang all playing key roles. Here is the 1991 video, which includes a jubilant Hurley after the national semifinal upset of UNLV and his famous alley-oop pass to Grant Hill for a thunderous dunk in the championship against Kansas:
Here is their 1992 montage from their win over Michigan's Fab Five. That team may have been as star-studded as Duke but it wasn't until the next season when they finally reached national rock-star status. The most famous game of that tournament was the epic regional final in Philadelphia when Duke beat Kentucky, 104-103, in overtime. It remains the greatest game I have ever seen. Two key moments in that game are in the montage: Laettner's stomping of Aminou Timberlake, a play that probably should have gotten him ejected from the game (he did receive a technical for his act), and of course his buzzer-beater to win it off the long in-bounds pass from Grant Hill. Laettner was 10-of-10 from the floor and 10-for-10 from the line for 31 points in perhaps the greatest individual performance of my lifetime in the tournament:
And finally, Mike Krzyzewski's third national championship game in 2001. The Blue Devils overcame a 22-point first half deficit in the national semifinal to the next year's champion Maryland before beating a very good Arizona team in the championship game. While this team wasn't as good as the 1991 and 1992 teams, it was loaded in its own right: Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy and Chris Duhon all were a part of that team and all but Williams have had lengthy NBA careers (and Williams' wasn't lengthy because of a career-ending motorcycle accident). Here is the montage:
The 1991 and 1992 Duke teams were like a traveling circus with Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Grant Hill, Brian Davis, Thomas Hill and Antonio Lang all playing key roles. Here is the 1991 video, which includes a jubilant Hurley after the national semifinal upset of UNLV and his famous alley-oop pass to Grant Hill for a thunderous dunk in the championship against Kansas:
Here is their 1992 montage from their win over Michigan's Fab Five. That team may have been as star-studded as Duke but it wasn't until the next season when they finally reached national rock-star status. The most famous game of that tournament was the epic regional final in Philadelphia when Duke beat Kentucky, 104-103, in overtime. It remains the greatest game I have ever seen. Two key moments in that game are in the montage: Laettner's stomping of Aminou Timberlake, a play that probably should have gotten him ejected from the game (he did receive a technical for his act), and of course his buzzer-beater to win it off the long in-bounds pass from Grant Hill. Laettner was 10-of-10 from the floor and 10-for-10 from the line for 31 points in perhaps the greatest individual performance of my lifetime in the tournament:
And finally, Mike Krzyzewski's third national championship game in 2001. The Blue Devils overcame a 22-point first half deficit in the national semifinal to the next year's champion Maryland before beating a very good Arizona team in the championship game. While this team wasn't as good as the 1991 and 1992 teams, it was loaded in its own right: Shane Battier, Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy and Chris Duhon all were a part of that team and all but Williams have had lengthy NBA careers (and Williams' wasn't lengthy because of a career-ending motorcycle accident). Here is the montage:
UNLV-Duke rivalry
Really enjoyed Greg Garber's piece just now on ESPN's championship game preview show on the 1989-1991 UNLV team. The 1989-90 team delivered the most impressive championship game of my lifetime, demolishing Duke, 103-73. The 1990-91 team that lost to Duke in the national semifinal remains the greatest team I have ever seen.
That UNLV team was undefeated going into the Final Four when they met Duke in a rematch from the 1990 championship game. Though the Blue Devils were a No. 2 seed in that tournament, I maintain that I was never more surprised by the outcome of any NCAA Tournament game than Duke beating UNLV. Hindsight has probably changed how we all view that game, given that Duke not only won the 1991 championship game but also repeated in 1992 in the early stages of the most dominant run in college basketball of the last 25 years.
Here's another question for you: have we ever seen a more star-studded college basketball rivalry or series or whatever you want to call it than Duke-UNLV in those two years? Those Vegas teams had Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Stacy Augmon and Anderson Hunt in both games. Duke had Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Brian Davis and Thomas Hill in both games, and added Grant Hill and Antonio Lang for the rematch. Both of those teams were like rock star teams, both legendary in college basketball beyond just their championship hardware.
With all the early entries to the NBA and the one-and-done rule, will we ever see a matchup of two such high-profile teams in the tournament ever again? The closest we came was probably the 2005 North Carolina-Illinois national championship yet neither of those teams had the star power of Duke and Vegas. In fact, it wasn't even close.
Here are some highlights from UNLV's 1990 championship season:
And here are is WRAL-TV's newscast after Duke's shocking upset win in '91:
That UNLV team was undefeated going into the Final Four when they met Duke in a rematch from the 1990 championship game. Though the Blue Devils were a No. 2 seed in that tournament, I maintain that I was never more surprised by the outcome of any NCAA Tournament game than Duke beating UNLV. Hindsight has probably changed how we all view that game, given that Duke not only won the 1991 championship game but also repeated in 1992 in the early stages of the most dominant run in college basketball of the last 25 years.
Here's another question for you: have we ever seen a more star-studded college basketball rivalry or series or whatever you want to call it than Duke-UNLV in those two years? Those Vegas teams had Larry Johnson, Greg Anthony, Stacy Augmon and Anderson Hunt in both games. Duke had Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley, Brian Davis and Thomas Hill in both games, and added Grant Hill and Antonio Lang for the rematch. Both of those teams were like rock star teams, both legendary in college basketball beyond just their championship hardware.
With all the early entries to the NBA and the one-and-done rule, will we ever see a matchup of two such high-profile teams in the tournament ever again? The closest we came was probably the 2005 North Carolina-Illinois national championship yet neither of those teams had the star power of Duke and Vegas. In fact, it wasn't even close.
Here are some highlights from UNLV's 1990 championship season:
And here are is WRAL-TV's newscast after Duke's shocking upset win in '91:
Cool moment in Atlanta
So this is what the Jason Heyward hype is all about. (He just homered in his Major League debut off the incredibly overrated Carlos Zambrano.)
Very cool moment for the fired up Braves fans who were obviously anticipating this moment all spring.
Very cool moment for the fired up Braves fans who were obviously anticipating this moment all spring.
This nine-day stretch
Saturday: Final Four
Sunday: Yankees-Red Sox open the baseball season, Donovan McNabb gets traded to Washington
Monday: Baseball’s real Opening Day (including Jason Heyward's debut), Tiger’s press conference, Duke-Butler national championship
Tuesday: Yankees-Red Sox, Crosby-Ovechkin, UConn women go for another national title
Wednesday: Yankees-Red Sox series finale, Melo-Durant
Thursday-Sunday: The Masters
Good week to be a sports fan. And the Stanley Cup playoffs begin next Wednesday.
Sunday: Yankees-Red Sox open the baseball season, Donovan McNabb gets traded to Washington
Monday: Baseball’s real Opening Day (including Jason Heyward's debut), Tiger’s press conference, Duke-Butler national championship
Tuesday: Yankees-Red Sox, Crosby-Ovechkin, UConn women go for another national title
Wednesday: Yankees-Red Sox series finale, Melo-Durant
Thursday-Sunday: The Masters
Good week to be a sports fan. And the Stanley Cup playoffs begin next Wednesday.
Attention whore or not, she's hot!
Supermodel Alessandra Ambrosio posted this link on her Twitter page. It’s not often that you see a celebrity embrace the paparazzi like this, especially when it involves their children. I bring you this info just so I can post this photo of the lovely Alessandra:
Welcoming Roy Halladay to the National League
After his outing against them today, how excited do you think Roy Halladay is at the prospect of making five or six starts against the Nationals this year? It’s not quite like facing the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
New season, same Albert
And he’s off! Albert Pujols with a two-homer day to start the 2010 campaign. I think he has a chance to be pretty good.
The culmination of March Madness, on April 5
It's sort of fitting that the Final Four happens in April because the Madness of March usually dies down; almost without fail, the Final Four is the most boring part of the NCAA Tournament.
This year has been no exception, at least so far. Yes, it was cool seeing Butler win on Saturday and, yes, it was a close game but their 52-50 win over Michigan State on Saturday was ugly. It wasn't exciting and not even Gus Johnson could have saved it. Duke crushed West Virginia in a game that wasn't competitive after the five-minute mark.
Anyway, Duke is a 7 1/2-point favorite tonight in the national championship game. To me, Butler's biggest strength is their perimeter defense led by Ronald Nored, who no doubt will be hounding someone tonight, be it Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer or Nolan Smith. It seems unlikely all three will be as hot as they were against West Virginia and Nored no doubt will all but take one out. His running mates Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley may have similar success as well.
What does that mean? It means if Butler's perimeter defense is successful, there are going to be a lot of rebounds to be had on Butler's defensive end. And that means Brian Zoubek becomes the key to this game. No one gets more second-chance points than Duke and it's because Zoubek embraced being a rebounder in late January or so. And if he gets enough offensive rebounds, the Singler-Scheyer-Smith trio will eventually get those second-chance points. Butler doesn't have the bigs to matchup with Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlees on the glass and I think that will be the difference, even if Nored has another great defensive game. He's been the defensive player of the tournament if you ask me.
I think Duke wins and covers, which would make Mike Krzyzewski just the third coach all-time to win four national championships.
This year has been no exception, at least so far. Yes, it was cool seeing Butler win on Saturday and, yes, it was a close game but their 52-50 win over Michigan State on Saturday was ugly. It wasn't exciting and not even Gus Johnson could have saved it. Duke crushed West Virginia in a game that wasn't competitive after the five-minute mark.
Anyway, Duke is a 7 1/2-point favorite tonight in the national championship game. To me, Butler's biggest strength is their perimeter defense led by Ronald Nored, who no doubt will be hounding someone tonight, be it Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer or Nolan Smith. It seems unlikely all three will be as hot as they were against West Virginia and Nored no doubt will all but take one out. His running mates Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley may have similar success as well.
What does that mean? It means if Butler's perimeter defense is successful, there are going to be a lot of rebounds to be had on Butler's defensive end. And that means Brian Zoubek becomes the key to this game. No one gets more second-chance points than Duke and it's because Zoubek embraced being a rebounder in late January or so. And if he gets enough offensive rebounds, the Singler-Scheyer-Smith trio will eventually get those second-chance points. Butler doesn't have the bigs to matchup with Zoubek, Lance Thomas and the Plumlees on the glass and I think that will be the difference, even if Nored has another great defensive game. He's been the defensive player of the tournament if you ask me.
I think Duke wins and covers, which would make Mike Krzyzewski just the third coach all-time to win four national championships.
Tiger has spoken
Tiger carried himself well in his presser, I must say, although I found it a little weird that he was calling reporters by nicknames. That Tiger, always such a media-friendly open book.
Headed to the Hall
So Jerry Buss has been elected to the Hall of Fame? It's hard to argue with the Lakers owner's success but I'm not sure what he's really done as a basketball man other than sign checks and order Shaquille O'Neal's trade. Doesn't he owe most of his success to the drafting, trading and coaching of men like Jerry West, Pat Riley, Phil Jackson and Mitch Kupchak?
Then again, maybe signing the checks and allowing the personnel department to sign Shaq to a $120 million contract is worth its weight in gold. Of course, James Dolan did the same thing in New York and look where that got him. Maybe Buss' genius is hiring competent people to spend his money, while Dolan gave that duty to the bumbling Isiah Thomas.
Congratulations to Dr. Buss, who no doubt will celebrate by sleeping with a Playboy Playmate or three. And for that, I have nothing but respect.
Then again, maybe signing the checks and allowing the personnel department to sign Shaq to a $120 million contract is worth its weight in gold. Of course, James Dolan did the same thing in New York and look where that got him. Maybe Buss' genius is hiring competent people to spend his money, while Dolan gave that duty to the bumbling Isiah Thomas.
Congratulations to Dr. Buss, who no doubt will celebrate by sleeping with a Playboy Playmate or three. And for that, I have nothing but respect.
National League preview
16. Pittsburgh (62 wins): 18th straight losing season, here they come! After trading away everyone with a pulse or a salary last season, the Pirates are told their fans, "Not only do we suck this year but we're gonna suck next year too! Pirates fever! Catch it!" So while waiting for Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata to arrive (and for their sake, let's hope it's at some point this season), fans in Pittsburgh can wonder how long it will be until Andrew McCutchen is on the way out and try to figure out what the Steelers do with Ben Roethlisberger. There's not much to like here. If not for the ballpark, there'd probably be nothing to like here.
15. San Diego (63): Kyle Blanks still qualifies as a rookie, having had only 148 at-bats last season, and he is a real candidate to be the Rookie of the Year, having hit 10 homers in those 148 A-Bs in 2009. So there's that. Then there are Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell, who figure to be on the move come July as the Padres continue their massive rebuilding project and payroll slash. I'm not sure what there is to be overly fired up about here. Their lineup is thin beyond Gonzalez and Blanks, and their pitching is reliant on Chris Young coming back from injury. I guess they could win some low-scoring games behind Young and Jon Garland in their pitcher-friendly park but, somehow, I don't think new play-by-play voice Dick Enberg is going to be positively saying his trademark "Oh my!" for much of what the Padres do this season.
14. Houston (65): They've needed to blow it up for about four years now but have stubbornly kept a veteran core. Almost as if he was trying to stick his middle finger up at his fans, when it was time to rebuild owner Drayton McLane decided to hire Ed Wade as the general manager a few years ago when Gerry Hunsicker departed. Wade had quite clearly established himself as one of the game's worst GMs when he was with the Phillies, a franchise that has prospered since he was shown the door. Lance Berkman opens the year on the DL. They spent actual money on third baseman Pedro Feliz and closer/setup man Brandon Lyon (Lyon already lost the closer job to Matt Lindstrom; so much for that three-year, $15 million deal Wade idiotically gave him). They figure to have four everyday players 33 or older which would be okay if this team won 94 games last year rather than the 74 they actually won. McLane should do what the Pirates did last year and trade all of these guys by the deadline. I have no doubt that they could command a lot for Roy Oswalt and that a DH-needy team in the AL would give up some value for the extremely Carlos Lee. Kaz Matsui could fill a need for someone (Feliz can't; he's terrible). But McLane won't do it and this franchise will fall further and further into the abyss. And to this, from 1995-2005, this was one of the top franchises in the NL.
13. Washington (71): I'm clearly optimistic about the Nationals because I'm projecting a 12-win improvement over last season's wretched 103-loss performance. I like some of the moves this team has made since Mike Rizzo replaced Jim Bowden as GM. They might be able to help themselves out more during the season by dealing Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, who at least may be able to drive in some runs early in the year when Nyger Morgan gets on base. I think Morgan has a chance to be an excellent leadoff hitter. Ryan Zimmerman is a stud. Going with Ian Desmond instead of Cristian Guzman at short is proof that this team is committed to building the right way. I don't think giving Pudge Rodriguez two years was smart but I do like his addition for 2010 to help the pitching staff along, a staff that has the underrated John Lannan, picked up innings-eater Jason Marquis, and have the rehabbing Chien-Ming Wang and uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg coming in June. It's progress.
12. New York (75): I'm not sure there has been a GM who has done less than Omar Minaya this decade. When running the Expos, he sent Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips to the Indians for deadline-fix Bartolo Colon, operating under the assumption the franchise would be contracted. It wasn't. Had that deal not been made, where would the Nationals be now? Then he moved on to the Mets, acquired one Hispanic player after another (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez, et al) and now has an old team that is in decline even before accounting for Beltran being out until June and Jose Reyes starting the year on the DL. The Mets project a payroll of $122 million and I think winning 85 games would be overachieving. What does that say about the contracts the GM gave out? The starting pitching after Santana is awful (though I grant that Citi Field will help them) and while I don't have a problem with the four-year deal they gave Jason Bay, per se (it must have been tough for Minaya to give $66 million to someone who isn't Hispanic), I worry about his production suffering after leaving Fenway for Citi Field. The move from Shea clearly affected David Wright last season. There's not a lot to like here. It may be about time to start over.
11. Chicago (77): Everything that could go wrong for the Cubs last season did. They're banking on improved health and Milton Bradley being gone to revert the team to 2007-2008 standards (save for getting swept in the NLDS both years). Sorry, I don't see it. I see an old team with declining players, a lousy bullpen headed by new closer Carlos Marmol who was inconsistent last season (4.06 fielding independent ERA and 1.46 WHIP) as a setup man, and a so-so rotation. Derrek Lee is 34. So is Alfonso Soriano (and Soriano is terrible anyway--his wins above replacement number was actually negative last season so, in his case, WAR needs to be renamed wins below replacement). Aramis Ramirez is 31. One of the so-called young guys, Ryan Theriot, is 30. Ryan Dempster is 32. Rehabbing Ted Lilly is 34. Marlon Byrd is 32. Kosuke Fukudome is lousy and 32. Really, only Carlos Zambrano is still in prime age (28) and he's both a hot-head and has a difficult time staying in shape. Really, this is probably the last hurrah for this group of Cubs, although most of these guys are signed beyond this season (Soriano is signed through 2014--feel bad for you Cubs fans) meaning next year and the year after will probably be even worse. The smart move would be to deal Ramirez, signed through next season with a 2012 option, for a couple of upper-level prospects and move Lee, a pending free agent after the season, but something tells me Jim Hendry will stand pat. And speaking of Hendry, new owner Tom Ricketts should probably find someone better at running a baseball team to be the general manager.
10. San Francisco (78): Love the pitching, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Hate the lineup. It's not going to score many runs and, sorry, but signing Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa doesn't represent much of an improvement over a lineup that sagged miserably last season. Other than Pablo Sandoval, there's nothing to like about the bats here, and that's what will do in the Giants.
9. Milwaukee (83): I'm not sure what to make of the Brewers. Obviously they have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. I love Alcides Escobar as a slap hitter and glove at shortstop. I think Casey McGehee can build on last season. I have no idea what to expect out of Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, both coming off lousy seasons. The thought of Jim Edmonds playing regularly at 39 and after spending 2009 running his St. Louis nightclub worries me. And I don't know what to make of the pitching additions of Randy Wolf and Doug Davis behind ace Yovani Gallardo (Wolf can't be as good as last year, can he?). Like I said, I don't know what to think. I have a question though: at what point do the Brewers decide to think about moving Prince? He's a Scott Boras client and thus will be looking to get paid, something that seems unlikely in Milwaukee, and ownership has to know that. Given that Albert Pujols is quite possibly the only better hitter in the NL, that payday could be a monster.
8. Cincinnati (84): This is a team that's coming. In fact, if Dusty Baker weren't the manager, I may have them penciled in for closer to 90 wins. Somehow, though, I can see him ruining the good collection of young arms they have--Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, with Aroldis Chapman on the way--something he began doing last season with Edinson Volquez (likely out until August). This could be the rotation of the future in the NL if Dusty doesn't ruin it first and I sort of feel like the best thing for their long-term health would be for the Reds to get out to a 10-24 start, Dusty to be fired and a new manager come in that knows how to handle young arms. The lineup has a chance to be really good if Jay Bruce lives up to his hype and has the sort of breakout season Joey Votto had last season. It's been a long time since Reds fans have had reason for real optimism but they have it now. The young kids this organization has developed in the last four or five years is as good as any team's collection of homegrown talent in the National League.
7. Los Angeles (84): The McCourts divorce has already ruined this season. This team badly needed a starting pitcher in the offseason and let Randy Wolf go and didn't try for either Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee because the McCourts were busy fighting each other in court. So much for the momentum of the last two seasons. It's too bad too because their young lineup has really emerged (Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, especially) and their bullpen is loaded. But Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter which should tell you everything. Oh, and what about Manny Ramirez? Everyone questioned why he struggled so much last season after coming back from a PEDs suspension, failing to make the obvious connection that players in their upper-30s usually aren't great without the help of said PEDs. I wonder how he'll do this season if he's clean. CHONE projects him as .280/.374/.511 and that seems optimistic to me in what I believe will be Manny Being Manny's final season.
6. Arizona (86): Potentially a real threat if Chris Young and Conor Jackson give them anything. There's a lot to like in Justin Upton (who has a real chance to make a leap to elite status this season), Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds. If Brandon Webb comes back by June and looks anything like he did before the injuries, how can one not like a rotation fronted by Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson? Of course, maybe all these young guys we all keep expecting to be good (I'm looking at you, Stephen Drew) never will be.
5. Florida (86): I admit it's a bit disconcerting that they willingly traded for Nate Robertson at the end of the spring but he can be passable in a rotation that is headed by Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, and which has Anibal Sanchez looking like he's on the comeback trail. Their lineup isn't half bad either, led by Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Chris Coghlan. It's time for Cameron Maybin to arrive. I don't think their defense is any good but their pitching and lineup are. Plus, the Marlins always win more than you think they should.
4. Atlanta (89): Everyone loves Atlanta this spring, partially because everyone thinks Jason Heyward is going to be amazing right off the bat. Heyward was said to be the most impressive rookie in the Grapefruit League since Albert Pujols destroyed the ball in 2001 and all Pujols did was have the greatest rookie season of all-time that season as he began a historically great career. It's hard to project any player to be that great so soon though and Heyward is only 20 (Pujols was only 21). Still, there's a lot to like on a team that needs three big injury comebacks to work out in Billy Wagner, Tim Hudson and Troy Glaus. Wagner pitched well for Boston last September so he should be fine. Hudson had an awesome spring and, after a sluggish start, Glaus came on late. These three are additions to the team, as is Heyward (Bill James projects him to have a .303/.371/.465 season and if he does that, look out, world), that they didn't have last season. Belief in Hudson's recovery allowed them to move Javier Vazquez (one of the five best pitchers in the NL last season) for Melky Cabrera (potentially a key move because Nate McLouth is trying to give away his centerfield job). I like Martin Prado as a do-everything guy and Yunel Escobar is a pretty good offensive shortstop. If Tommy Hanson builds on his rookie season and Hudson is back, the starting pitching could be really, really good. Of course, it could all be derailed too if those comebacks don't turn out well and Chipper Jones has nothing left but I think Bobby Cox's final season will be a good one.
3. Colorado (91): Loaded. It took forever but Dan O'Dowd finally figured out how to build a real team in Colorado (the Humidor helped). I love the young talent they have in Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler. Todd Helton still can hit. Garrett Atkins is gone, and takes with him a black hole in the lineup. And no one realizes how good the pitching is, especially Ubaldo Jimenez whom many have tabbed as a breakout star for 2010. This was the best team in the NL from Memorial Day on last season and everyone of note is back. Look out for this team for the next 3-4 years.
2. Philadelphia (93): First, the bad news: this bullpen could be a train wreck. Their best hope for a successful bullpen is for Ryan Madson to be lights-out as the closer while Brad Lidge is on the DL, causing Charlie Manuel to keep him as the closer. Now that I've nitpicked about the bullpen, I'll move on and tell you that this is easily the best lineup in the National League with the Utley-Rollins-Howard trio unmatched. Rollins can't help but be better this season than he was last. I've become a big believer in Jayson Werth and while I can't see Raul Ibanez repeating his 2009, I can see him being a tough out in this lineup. Had they managed to get Roy Halladay and kept Cliff Lee, this starting rotation would have been scary. As it is, they have Halladay and Cole Hamels, who everyone says is going to have a big season after a poor 2009. One can only imagine how Halladay will do in the NL after years of pitching so much against the Yankees and Red Sox. Could his ERA drop under 2.50 for the season? And how fired up is he going to be to pitch in a pennant race and in October? No National League team has appeared in three straight World Series since the 1942-44 Cardinals and the Phillies have a real chance to do it. My only concern: they've stayed really, really healthy these last couple years and one of these years, one figures a key injury will slow them down somewhere. But even if that happens, they shouldn't miss the playoffs unless something catastrophic happens.
1. St. Louis (94): The core of this team is as good as any in the National League. Albert Pujols is the game's best player. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright offer a one-two punch at the top of the rotation better than any other. Yadier Molina takes tough at-bats and is better behind the plate than anyone else in the game. Matt Holliday is a legitimate All-Star (although I think they'll be regretting that contract in 2015). Lots of people foresee a breakout season from Colby Rasmus. They are as fundamentally sound as any team in the game and they don't give away anything because Tony La Russa won't allow them to. In the NL Central, the Cardinals could have a shot to win 100 games. Two things that are worrisome: they have a very weak bench and a mediocre bullpen. Ryan Franklin outpitched his expected performance based on peripherals last season and one cannot possibly expect him to be as good. And their bench is full of veteran minor league outfielders that are really 4A players. If anything happens to Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter or Wainwright, trouble is likely ahead (although I think they can survive a short-term loss to Carpenter or Wainwright because I fully expect Brad Penny, pitching for a contract, to thrive under Dave Duncan's tutelage). But if they stay healthy, I think they're in the best position to win the most games in the NL.
NLCS: Colorado over St. Louis
MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta
Comeback Player: Billy Wagner, Atlanta
15. San Diego (63): Kyle Blanks still qualifies as a rookie, having had only 148 at-bats last season, and he is a real candidate to be the Rookie of the Year, having hit 10 homers in those 148 A-Bs in 2009. So there's that. Then there are Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell, who figure to be on the move come July as the Padres continue their massive rebuilding project and payroll slash. I'm not sure what there is to be overly fired up about here. Their lineup is thin beyond Gonzalez and Blanks, and their pitching is reliant on Chris Young coming back from injury. I guess they could win some low-scoring games behind Young and Jon Garland in their pitcher-friendly park but, somehow, I don't think new play-by-play voice Dick Enberg is going to be positively saying his trademark "Oh my!" for much of what the Padres do this season.
14. Houston (65): They've needed to blow it up for about four years now but have stubbornly kept a veteran core. Almost as if he was trying to stick his middle finger up at his fans, when it was time to rebuild owner Drayton McLane decided to hire Ed Wade as the general manager a few years ago when Gerry Hunsicker departed. Wade had quite clearly established himself as one of the game's worst GMs when he was with the Phillies, a franchise that has prospered since he was shown the door. Lance Berkman opens the year on the DL. They spent actual money on third baseman Pedro Feliz and closer/setup man Brandon Lyon (Lyon already lost the closer job to Matt Lindstrom; so much for that three-year, $15 million deal Wade idiotically gave him). They figure to have four everyday players 33 or older which would be okay if this team won 94 games last year rather than the 74 they actually won. McLane should do what the Pirates did last year and trade all of these guys by the deadline. I have no doubt that they could command a lot for Roy Oswalt and that a DH-needy team in the AL would give up some value for the extremely Carlos Lee. Kaz Matsui could fill a need for someone (Feliz can't; he's terrible). But McLane won't do it and this franchise will fall further and further into the abyss. And to this, from 1995-2005, this was one of the top franchises in the NL.
13. Washington (71): I'm clearly optimistic about the Nationals because I'm projecting a 12-win improvement over last season's wretched 103-loss performance. I like some of the moves this team has made since Mike Rizzo replaced Jim Bowden as GM. They might be able to help themselves out more during the season by dealing Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, who at least may be able to drive in some runs early in the year when Nyger Morgan gets on base. I think Morgan has a chance to be an excellent leadoff hitter. Ryan Zimmerman is a stud. Going with Ian Desmond instead of Cristian Guzman at short is proof that this team is committed to building the right way. I don't think giving Pudge Rodriguez two years was smart but I do like his addition for 2010 to help the pitching staff along, a staff that has the underrated John Lannan, picked up innings-eater Jason Marquis, and have the rehabbing Chien-Ming Wang and uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg coming in June. It's progress.
12. New York (75): I'm not sure there has been a GM who has done less than Omar Minaya this decade. When running the Expos, he sent Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips to the Indians for deadline-fix Bartolo Colon, operating under the assumption the franchise would be contracted. It wasn't. Had that deal not been made, where would the Nationals be now? Then he moved on to the Mets, acquired one Hispanic player after another (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez, et al) and now has an old team that is in decline even before accounting for Beltran being out until June and Jose Reyes starting the year on the DL. The Mets project a payroll of $122 million and I think winning 85 games would be overachieving. What does that say about the contracts the GM gave out? The starting pitching after Santana is awful (though I grant that Citi Field will help them) and while I don't have a problem with the four-year deal they gave Jason Bay, per se (it must have been tough for Minaya to give $66 million to someone who isn't Hispanic), I worry about his production suffering after leaving Fenway for Citi Field. The move from Shea clearly affected David Wright last season. There's not a lot to like here. It may be about time to start over.
11. Chicago (77): Everything that could go wrong for the Cubs last season did. They're banking on improved health and Milton Bradley being gone to revert the team to 2007-2008 standards (save for getting swept in the NLDS both years). Sorry, I don't see it. I see an old team with declining players, a lousy bullpen headed by new closer Carlos Marmol who was inconsistent last season (4.06 fielding independent ERA and 1.46 WHIP) as a setup man, and a so-so rotation. Derrek Lee is 34. So is Alfonso Soriano (and Soriano is terrible anyway--his wins above replacement number was actually negative last season so, in his case, WAR needs to be renamed wins below replacement). Aramis Ramirez is 31. One of the so-called young guys, Ryan Theriot, is 30. Ryan Dempster is 32. Rehabbing Ted Lilly is 34. Marlon Byrd is 32. Kosuke Fukudome is lousy and 32. Really, only Carlos Zambrano is still in prime age (28) and he's both a hot-head and has a difficult time staying in shape. Really, this is probably the last hurrah for this group of Cubs, although most of these guys are signed beyond this season (Soriano is signed through 2014--feel bad for you Cubs fans) meaning next year and the year after will probably be even worse. The smart move would be to deal Ramirez, signed through next season with a 2012 option, for a couple of upper-level prospects and move Lee, a pending free agent after the season, but something tells me Jim Hendry will stand pat. And speaking of Hendry, new owner Tom Ricketts should probably find someone better at running a baseball team to be the general manager.
10. San Francisco (78): Love the pitching, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Hate the lineup. It's not going to score many runs and, sorry, but signing Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa doesn't represent much of an improvement over a lineup that sagged miserably last season. Other than Pablo Sandoval, there's nothing to like about the bats here, and that's what will do in the Giants.
9. Milwaukee (83): I'm not sure what to make of the Brewers. Obviously they have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. I love Alcides Escobar as a slap hitter and glove at shortstop. I think Casey McGehee can build on last season. I have no idea what to expect out of Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, both coming off lousy seasons. The thought of Jim Edmonds playing regularly at 39 and after spending 2009 running his St. Louis nightclub worries me. And I don't know what to make of the pitching additions of Randy Wolf and Doug Davis behind ace Yovani Gallardo (Wolf can't be as good as last year, can he?). Like I said, I don't know what to think. I have a question though: at what point do the Brewers decide to think about moving Prince? He's a Scott Boras client and thus will be looking to get paid, something that seems unlikely in Milwaukee, and ownership has to know that. Given that Albert Pujols is quite possibly the only better hitter in the NL, that payday could be a monster.
8. Cincinnati (84): This is a team that's coming. In fact, if Dusty Baker weren't the manager, I may have them penciled in for closer to 90 wins. Somehow, though, I can see him ruining the good collection of young arms they have--Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, with Aroldis Chapman on the way--something he began doing last season with Edinson Volquez (likely out until August). This could be the rotation of the future in the NL if Dusty doesn't ruin it first and I sort of feel like the best thing for their long-term health would be for the Reds to get out to a 10-24 start, Dusty to be fired and a new manager come in that knows how to handle young arms. The lineup has a chance to be really good if Jay Bruce lives up to his hype and has the sort of breakout season Joey Votto had last season. It's been a long time since Reds fans have had reason for real optimism but they have it now. The young kids this organization has developed in the last four or five years is as good as any team's collection of homegrown talent in the National League.
7. Los Angeles (84): The McCourts divorce has already ruined this season. This team badly needed a starting pitcher in the offseason and let Randy Wolf go and didn't try for either Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee because the McCourts were busy fighting each other in court. So much for the momentum of the last two seasons. It's too bad too because their young lineup has really emerged (Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, especially) and their bullpen is loaded. But Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter which should tell you everything. Oh, and what about Manny Ramirez? Everyone questioned why he struggled so much last season after coming back from a PEDs suspension, failing to make the obvious connection that players in their upper-30s usually aren't great without the help of said PEDs. I wonder how he'll do this season if he's clean. CHONE projects him as .280/.374/.511 and that seems optimistic to me in what I believe will be Manny Being Manny's final season.
6. Arizona (86): Potentially a real threat if Chris Young and Conor Jackson give them anything. There's a lot to like in Justin Upton (who has a real chance to make a leap to elite status this season), Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds. If Brandon Webb comes back by June and looks anything like he did before the injuries, how can one not like a rotation fronted by Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson? Of course, maybe all these young guys we all keep expecting to be good (I'm looking at you, Stephen Drew) never will be.
5. Florida (86): I admit it's a bit disconcerting that they willingly traded for Nate Robertson at the end of the spring but he can be passable in a rotation that is headed by Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, and which has Anibal Sanchez looking like he's on the comeback trail. Their lineup isn't half bad either, led by Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Chris Coghlan. It's time for Cameron Maybin to arrive. I don't think their defense is any good but their pitching and lineup are. Plus, the Marlins always win more than you think they should.
4. Atlanta (89): Everyone loves Atlanta this spring, partially because everyone thinks Jason Heyward is going to be amazing right off the bat. Heyward was said to be the most impressive rookie in the Grapefruit League since Albert Pujols destroyed the ball in 2001 and all Pujols did was have the greatest rookie season of all-time that season as he began a historically great career. It's hard to project any player to be that great so soon though and Heyward is only 20 (Pujols was only 21). Still, there's a lot to like on a team that needs three big injury comebacks to work out in Billy Wagner, Tim Hudson and Troy Glaus. Wagner pitched well for Boston last September so he should be fine. Hudson had an awesome spring and, after a sluggish start, Glaus came on late. These three are additions to the team, as is Heyward (Bill James projects him to have a .303/.371/.465 season and if he does that, look out, world), that they didn't have last season. Belief in Hudson's recovery allowed them to move Javier Vazquez (one of the five best pitchers in the NL last season) for Melky Cabrera (potentially a key move because Nate McLouth is trying to give away his centerfield job). I like Martin Prado as a do-everything guy and Yunel Escobar is a pretty good offensive shortstop. If Tommy Hanson builds on his rookie season and Hudson is back, the starting pitching could be really, really good. Of course, it could all be derailed too if those comebacks don't turn out well and Chipper Jones has nothing left but I think Bobby Cox's final season will be a good one.
3. Colorado (91): Loaded. It took forever but Dan O'Dowd finally figured out how to build a real team in Colorado (the Humidor helped). I love the young talent they have in Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler. Todd Helton still can hit. Garrett Atkins is gone, and takes with him a black hole in the lineup. And no one realizes how good the pitching is, especially Ubaldo Jimenez whom many have tabbed as a breakout star for 2010. This was the best team in the NL from Memorial Day on last season and everyone of note is back. Look out for this team for the next 3-4 years.
2. Philadelphia (93): First, the bad news: this bullpen could be a train wreck. Their best hope for a successful bullpen is for Ryan Madson to be lights-out as the closer while Brad Lidge is on the DL, causing Charlie Manuel to keep him as the closer. Now that I've nitpicked about the bullpen, I'll move on and tell you that this is easily the best lineup in the National League with the Utley-Rollins-Howard trio unmatched. Rollins can't help but be better this season than he was last. I've become a big believer in Jayson Werth and while I can't see Raul Ibanez repeating his 2009, I can see him being a tough out in this lineup. Had they managed to get Roy Halladay and kept Cliff Lee, this starting rotation would have been scary. As it is, they have Halladay and Cole Hamels, who everyone says is going to have a big season after a poor 2009. One can only imagine how Halladay will do in the NL after years of pitching so much against the Yankees and Red Sox. Could his ERA drop under 2.50 for the season? And how fired up is he going to be to pitch in a pennant race and in October? No National League team has appeared in three straight World Series since the 1942-44 Cardinals and the Phillies have a real chance to do it. My only concern: they've stayed really, really healthy these last couple years and one of these years, one figures a key injury will slow them down somewhere. But even if that happens, they shouldn't miss the playoffs unless something catastrophic happens.
1. St. Louis (94): The core of this team is as good as any in the National League. Albert Pujols is the game's best player. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright offer a one-two punch at the top of the rotation better than any other. Yadier Molina takes tough at-bats and is better behind the plate than anyone else in the game. Matt Holliday is a legitimate All-Star (although I think they'll be regretting that contract in 2015). Lots of people foresee a breakout season from Colby Rasmus. They are as fundamentally sound as any team in the game and they don't give away anything because Tony La Russa won't allow them to. In the NL Central, the Cardinals could have a shot to win 100 games. Two things that are worrisome: they have a very weak bench and a mediocre bullpen. Ryan Franklin outpitched his expected performance based on peripherals last season and one cannot possibly expect him to be as good. And their bench is full of veteran minor league outfielders that are really 4A players. If anything happens to Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter or Wainwright, trouble is likely ahead (although I think they can survive a short-term loss to Carpenter or Wainwright because I fully expect Brad Penny, pitching for a contract, to thrive under Dave Duncan's tutelage). But if they stay healthy, I think they're in the best position to win the most games in the NL.
NLCS: Colorado over St. Louis
MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta
Comeback Player: Billy Wagner, Atlanta
April 4, 2010
Mr. McNabb goes to Washington
Eagles fans have been complaining about Donovan McNabb for years. Let's see how they enjoy life without him. Say what you will about him but very few quarterbacks have ever played at a high level for one franchise for 10 years. Very few quarterbacks have all but guaranteed a contending team for every year of their career (since becoming the full-time starter in 2000, the Eagles have finished 8-8 or better in all but one season, the one being the 2005 season that had the Eagles at 4-4 when McNabb suffered a season-ending injury). Very few quarterbacks lead their team to the NFC Championship game five times in a nine-season span. And he did all of this despite having a complete offensive arsenal only once (2004, and that's arguable because their receivers besides Terrell Owens that season were terrible).
I always told Eagles fans to be careful what they wish for because they just might get it. Well, they've gotten it and now we'll see how things play out. I think Kevin Kolb has a good future and, like Aaron Rodgers when he took over for Brett Favre, he has a lot of good, young weapons around him (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek). What remains to be seen is if he has the mental makeup to succeed in a town as tough as Philadelphia, one that never fully embraced McNabb even though he was quite clearly the best quarterback in franchise history.
In sending him to the Redskins, the Eagles did right by McNabb because, according to Jason Cole of Yahoo!, they had no other choice. McNabb wouldn't go elsewhere (certainly not to Oakland or Buffalo) and, according to Cole, Andy Reid actually preferred to keep him. So now McNabb gets the chance to face the Eagles twice a year (something the Packers tried to avoid having to do when they traded Brett Favre to the Jets; so much for that working out) and goes to a team whose offense is similar to the one he ran in Philadelphia. The Redskins have a very good defense in terms of personnel, and perhaps the arrival of the best Redskins quarterback since...Joe Theismann?...will wake up talented malcontents like Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall. Their offense is a work in progress (sorry but I don't trust a running game built around an aging Clinton Portis, a washed-up Larry Johnson and flash-in-the-pan Willie Parker) and needs playmakers but McNabb has excelled without playmakers before (wonder if they would investigate a trade for Brandon Marshall).
For the first time ever, the Redskins have made a big offseason move that actually was smart. They traded for a perennial playoff quarterback while giving up only two draft choices, none of which was a first-rounder.
One more thing: when Mike Shanahan went to Denver, his quarterback was a 34-year-old John Elway who at that time was known more for his inability to win the big game than he was for his late-game heroics. Now Shanahan gets a 33-year-old McNabb who has the same can't-with-the-big-one tag Elway had. McNabb is not as good as Elway was, although he's a possible Hall of Famer in his own right, but the situation is pretty similar. Shanahan has only won one playoff game since Elway retired following winning Super Bowl 33 and McNabb is easily the best quarterback he has had since then.
I always told Eagles fans to be careful what they wish for because they just might get it. Well, they've gotten it and now we'll see how things play out. I think Kevin Kolb has a good future and, like Aaron Rodgers when he took over for Brett Favre, he has a lot of good, young weapons around him (DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek). What remains to be seen is if he has the mental makeup to succeed in a town as tough as Philadelphia, one that never fully embraced McNabb even though he was quite clearly the best quarterback in franchise history.
In sending him to the Redskins, the Eagles did right by McNabb because, according to Jason Cole of Yahoo!, they had no other choice. McNabb wouldn't go elsewhere (certainly not to Oakland or Buffalo) and, according to Cole, Andy Reid actually preferred to keep him. So now McNabb gets the chance to face the Eagles twice a year (something the Packers tried to avoid having to do when they traded Brett Favre to the Jets; so much for that working out) and goes to a team whose offense is similar to the one he ran in Philadelphia. The Redskins have a very good defense in terms of personnel, and perhaps the arrival of the best Redskins quarterback since...Joe Theismann?...will wake up talented malcontents like Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall. Their offense is a work in progress (sorry but I don't trust a running game built around an aging Clinton Portis, a washed-up Larry Johnson and flash-in-the-pan Willie Parker) and needs playmakers but McNabb has excelled without playmakers before (wonder if they would investigate a trade for Brandon Marshall).
For the first time ever, the Redskins have made a big offseason move that actually was smart. They traded for a perennial playoff quarterback while giving up only two draft choices, none of which was a first-rounder.
One more thing: when Mike Shanahan went to Denver, his quarterback was a 34-year-old John Elway who at that time was known more for his inability to win the big game than he was for his late-game heroics. Now Shanahan gets a 33-year-old McNabb who has the same can't-with-the-big-one tag Elway had. McNabb is not as good as Elway was, although he's a possible Hall of Famer in his own right, but the situation is pretty similar. Shanahan has only won one playoff game since Elway retired following winning Super Bowl 33 and McNabb is easily the best quarterback he has had since then.
Shortening the game
You know that special subcommittee Bud Selig enlisted? The one that suggested ways to shorten the game (and radically realign the divisions, and let's hope that doesn't happen)? We'll find out in a hurry if those suggested ways work tonight. If the Yankees-Red Sox game lasts less than four hours, they will have succeeded.
American League preview
The American League season begins tonight with the Yankees and Red Sox (over under on time of game: 3 hours, 46 minutes). Here's a preview of the Junior Circuit (shouldn't that name be changed, given that the AL has been the superior league since at least 1999?).
14. Kansas City (55 wins): I'd honestly like to give them just 33 wins, those representing all of Zack Greinke's starts, but I figure not even the Royals are that bad. I really believe this team has a chance to be one of the worst of all-time. Other than Greinke and closer Joakim Soria, I cannot find a single bright spot on this team. Rick Ankiel? Billy Butler? Alberto Callaspo? Blecch. Alex Gordon (who starts the year on the DL) hasn't come close to being any good. On the bright side, there's Greinke (cannot wait for him to be traded, just so that he can pitch for a contender), a beautiful ballpark and Joe Posnanski's columns bagging on their ineptitude, so at least there's that. I wonder what a contender with a so-so closer (St. Louis? Minnesota? Seattle? Philadelphia?) would offer the Royals for Soria in late July.
13. Toronto (73): They re-signed Adam Lind for $18 million over four years, plus three team options. You read that right. So all is not lost. And fans can still go to the SkyDome (or whatever its called now) and have sex in the third inning. So there's that. And there's Ricky Romero. Beyond that, I'm not sure what there is to like. They have a lot of players who would be good complimentary players on a contender (Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez) playing too big a role and Vernon Wells, he of the worst contract in baseball history (owed a whopping $98.5 million over the next five years). Of course, it's all necessary to rebuild this team after the Roy Halladay trade.
12. Cleveland (74): Here's the problem: they're relying on too many comeback years to be contenders. Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona. They can't all succeed, can they? But I like their direction. Sizemore is a stud and will bounce back. Everyone has been raving about Carmona's spring (color me skeptical because of his mediocre strikeout rate, even in his magical 2007). Love Carlos Santana, who should be with the big club now. I think Chris Perez has a future as a top-of-the-line closer and should hold on to the job even after Kerry Wood comes back. Shin-Soo Choo is a good player. Matt LaPorta projects as a big-time power hitter (he was the key to the CC Sabathia trade to Milwaukee in 2008). I like Justin Masterson. But it's all a couple years away.
11. Baltimore (77): Peter Angelos continues to be a thorn in this franchise's side. Too bad he's the owner. But they have a young core now: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen. The future could be bright. And if Matusz, Guthrie and Bergesen mature faster than expected, they could reach .500. But any team starting Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins on the corners and using Mike Gonzalez as a closer (rather than as a lefty specialist) scares me. And did I mention their shortstop platoon is Cesar Izturis and Julio Lugo?
10. Texas (79): I wonder if Ron Washington can lead them after his cocaine admission. I wonder if the weight of Nolan Ryan's 92-win prediction will be too much for them. I really, really wonder about any team that calls Scott Feldman and perpetually injured Rich Harden (who had trouble hitting 87 in the spring) their top two starting pitchers.
9. Detroit (80): Maybe I'm underestimating a team that has Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation. And their bullpen should be far better now that Jose Valverde has signed on to close. Miguel Cabrera is ready for a monster year after kicking his alcohol habit and I think the Johnny Damon signing was a good one. But there's something missing here. Maybe it's that their relying on two rookies at key positions up the middle in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore, or that Dontrelle Willis is one of their starting pitchers, but I think something is missing.
8. Chicago (82): Really like their rotation with Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and John Denks. This Gordon Beckham is an emerging star. Don't like anything else about this team.
7. Seattle (84): I would love for this team to be good, just so Ken Griffey Jr. can go out on a contender, but any lineup that's hitting Milton Bradley cleanup is in trouble. They will be involved in a lot of 3-2 games, won't beat themselves in the field (should be the best defensive team in baseball), and have two studs fronting the rotation (although Cliff Lee is currently on the DL) but I just feel like this team won't score enough runs to put together winning streaks. I see a lot of close wins at home and a lot of losses on the road. Love watching Ichiro though.
6. Oakland (85): I was really tempted to pick them to win the West because I love their pitching. I think Brett Anderson could be a Cy Young candidate this year and I think Ben Sheets and Justin Duchsherer are coming on. And Andrew Bailey is a hammer at the end of games. But they won't score enough runs to make the postseason. Too much inexperience. And can we please move this team to San Jose already?
5. Minnesota (86): The injury to Joe Nathan drops them from being a potential 90-win team. I've seen enough teams undermined by crappy bullpens to know that closers are important, no matter what the stat-heads say (and I'm a believer in the statistical evidence, most of the time). There's just something about those final three outs that takes some sort of intestinal fortitude that the statistics can't measure and I can't see Jon Rauch being that reliable. Hopefully they go out and get Heath Bell. I really like Target Field and I love any lineup that has Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span (and I could see Jim Thome having a bounce-back year too). I foresee a big comeback from Francisco Liriano as well. If they get a closer, this will be a team equipped to win a playoff series. Call the Royals for Soria.
4. Los Angeles (87): Losing Chone Figgins hurts their lineup but this is an OPS machine of a team. Hideki Matsui is an upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero at this point. What I don't like about the Angels is their pitching. Actually, I take that back. What I don't like about the Angels in the playoffs is their pitching. I think they have the deepest rotation in the AL but, with John Lackey gone, they don't have any bulldog to lead them in October. They're built for the regular season grind but not the playoffs unless either Jered Weaver or Ervin Santana takes a big step forward. There's no ace here.
3. New York (94): Some say the Yankees could be better than last year. I say they won't be. At some point, age is going to catch up to the Jeter-Posada-Rivera-Pettitte quartet and even if it isn't in performance, it could be in terms of injuries. And I really worry about Posada defensively and in calling a game. They're going to miss Jose Molina more than they realize because the pitchers were better with him behind the plate and because it will be harder to spell Posada with a different catcher by moving him to DH. Speaking of DHs, I don't believe for a second that OBP machine Nick Johnson is an upgrade over the departed Hideki Matsui. Johnson is always injured. And in Matsui and Johnny Damon, they let go of two guys who took some really tough at-bats. Plus, it seems like A.J. Burnett is due for an injury, not to mention that he no longer has Molina to catch him (we all remember the battle over who would catch him in the postseason last October). Can Javier Vazquez handle New York? He didn't in 2004. And, other than Rivera, I don't like their bullpen all that much. I don't think Joba Chamberlain is good at all. In fact, had he come up with, say, the Padres I don't think anyone would have thought all that much of him. Inconsistent, no command, doesn't know how to pitch. They're going to miss Phil Hughes in the eighth inning. On the bright side, of course, is they have the resources to go out and fix these problems. Am I nitpicking? Yes. The Yankees are loaded. But so are Boston and Tampa Bay and I have to have a reason for leaving one of them out of the playoffs. These are my reasons for leaving out New York.
2. Boston (95): Love, love, love, love, love the pitching. I don't think John Lackey will be a good long-term investment for Boston but I think he'll be excellent for them this year, behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Beckett is the best active big-game pitcher in the game and Lester is a possible Cy Young winner. I really like Daniel Bard in the eighth inning setting up Jonathan Papelbon, who I think will be better than he was in an inconsistent 2009 (his numbers don't reflect how inconsistent he was). They're as good as anyone but Seattle defensively as they've moved toward run prevention and I think they still have some excellent sticks in Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and Dustin Pedroia. And I think Adrian Gonzalez is coming in July.
1. Tampa Bay (98): Everyone said they were the best team this spring and it's the last hurrah for this group, with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena leaving after the season. So they'll make this year count. With those two, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton, they have an excellent core of players (although Upton has to bounce back from a miserable 2009; I think he will or else they'll give Desmond Jennings a shot later in the season). Everyone seems to love Sean Rodriguez. There are those that think Matt Garza could be on his way to a Cy Young season. The bullpen is a little iffy but I think it will hold up if J.P. Howell can return fairly soon. Of course, if they fall behind they'll dump Crawford and Pena, but if they stay in it I think they will add a little payroll for a short-term fix (no one whose contract extends into 2011, unless they make virtually no money). Their talent level is so high and their window so small that I think the Rays are going to take advantage of the situation and have a huge year. I just wish they could keep it together.
ALCS: Tampa Bay over Boston
MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: Brett Anderson, Oakland
Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, Baltimore
Comeback Player: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay
14. Kansas City (55 wins): I'd honestly like to give them just 33 wins, those representing all of Zack Greinke's starts, but I figure not even the Royals are that bad. I really believe this team has a chance to be one of the worst of all-time. Other than Greinke and closer Joakim Soria, I cannot find a single bright spot on this team. Rick Ankiel? Billy Butler? Alberto Callaspo? Blecch. Alex Gordon (who starts the year on the DL) hasn't come close to being any good. On the bright side, there's Greinke (cannot wait for him to be traded, just so that he can pitch for a contender), a beautiful ballpark and Joe Posnanski's columns bagging on their ineptitude, so at least there's that. I wonder what a contender with a so-so closer (St. Louis? Minnesota? Seattle? Philadelphia?) would offer the Royals for Soria in late July.
13. Toronto (73): They re-signed Adam Lind for $18 million over four years, plus three team options. You read that right. So all is not lost. And fans can still go to the SkyDome (or whatever its called now) and have sex in the third inning. So there's that. And there's Ricky Romero. Beyond that, I'm not sure what there is to like. They have a lot of players who would be good complimentary players on a contender (Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez) playing too big a role and Vernon Wells, he of the worst contract in baseball history (owed a whopping $98.5 million over the next five years). Of course, it's all necessary to rebuild this team after the Roy Halladay trade.
12. Cleveland (74): Here's the problem: they're relying on too many comeback years to be contenders. Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona. They can't all succeed, can they? But I like their direction. Sizemore is a stud and will bounce back. Everyone has been raving about Carmona's spring (color me skeptical because of his mediocre strikeout rate, even in his magical 2007). Love Carlos Santana, who should be with the big club now. I think Chris Perez has a future as a top-of-the-line closer and should hold on to the job even after Kerry Wood comes back. Shin-Soo Choo is a good player. Matt LaPorta projects as a big-time power hitter (he was the key to the CC Sabathia trade to Milwaukee in 2008). I like Justin Masterson. But it's all a couple years away.
11. Baltimore (77): Peter Angelos continues to be a thorn in this franchise's side. Too bad he's the owner. But they have a young core now: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen. The future could be bright. And if Matusz, Guthrie and Bergesen mature faster than expected, they could reach .500. But any team starting Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins on the corners and using Mike Gonzalez as a closer (rather than as a lefty specialist) scares me. And did I mention their shortstop platoon is Cesar Izturis and Julio Lugo?
10. Texas (79): I wonder if Ron Washington can lead them after his cocaine admission. I wonder if the weight of Nolan Ryan's 92-win prediction will be too much for them. I really, really wonder about any team that calls Scott Feldman and perpetually injured Rich Harden (who had trouble hitting 87 in the spring) their top two starting pitchers.
9. Detroit (80): Maybe I'm underestimating a team that has Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation. And their bullpen should be far better now that Jose Valverde has signed on to close. Miguel Cabrera is ready for a monster year after kicking his alcohol habit and I think the Johnny Damon signing was a good one. But there's something missing here. Maybe it's that their relying on two rookies at key positions up the middle in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore, or that Dontrelle Willis is one of their starting pitchers, but I think something is missing.
8. Chicago (82): Really like their rotation with Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and John Denks. This Gordon Beckham is an emerging star. Don't like anything else about this team.
7. Seattle (84): I would love for this team to be good, just so Ken Griffey Jr. can go out on a contender, but any lineup that's hitting Milton Bradley cleanup is in trouble. They will be involved in a lot of 3-2 games, won't beat themselves in the field (should be the best defensive team in baseball), and have two studs fronting the rotation (although Cliff Lee is currently on the DL) but I just feel like this team won't score enough runs to put together winning streaks. I see a lot of close wins at home and a lot of losses on the road. Love watching Ichiro though.
6. Oakland (85): I was really tempted to pick them to win the West because I love their pitching. I think Brett Anderson could be a Cy Young candidate this year and I think Ben Sheets and Justin Duchsherer are coming on. And Andrew Bailey is a hammer at the end of games. But they won't score enough runs to make the postseason. Too much inexperience. And can we please move this team to San Jose already?
5. Minnesota (86): The injury to Joe Nathan drops them from being a potential 90-win team. I've seen enough teams undermined by crappy bullpens to know that closers are important, no matter what the stat-heads say (and I'm a believer in the statistical evidence, most of the time). There's just something about those final three outs that takes some sort of intestinal fortitude that the statistics can't measure and I can't see Jon Rauch being that reliable. Hopefully they go out and get Heath Bell. I really like Target Field and I love any lineup that has Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span (and I could see Jim Thome having a bounce-back year too). I foresee a big comeback from Francisco Liriano as well. If they get a closer, this will be a team equipped to win a playoff series. Call the Royals for Soria.
4. Los Angeles (87): Losing Chone Figgins hurts their lineup but this is an OPS machine of a team. Hideki Matsui is an upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero at this point. What I don't like about the Angels is their pitching. Actually, I take that back. What I don't like about the Angels in the playoffs is their pitching. I think they have the deepest rotation in the AL but, with John Lackey gone, they don't have any bulldog to lead them in October. They're built for the regular season grind but not the playoffs unless either Jered Weaver or Ervin Santana takes a big step forward. There's no ace here.
3. New York (94): Some say the Yankees could be better than last year. I say they won't be. At some point, age is going to catch up to the Jeter-Posada-Rivera-Pettitte quartet and even if it isn't in performance, it could be in terms of injuries. And I really worry about Posada defensively and in calling a game. They're going to miss Jose Molina more than they realize because the pitchers were better with him behind the plate and because it will be harder to spell Posada with a different catcher by moving him to DH. Speaking of DHs, I don't believe for a second that OBP machine Nick Johnson is an upgrade over the departed Hideki Matsui. Johnson is always injured. And in Matsui and Johnny Damon, they let go of two guys who took some really tough at-bats. Plus, it seems like A.J. Burnett is due for an injury, not to mention that he no longer has Molina to catch him (we all remember the battle over who would catch him in the postseason last October). Can Javier Vazquez handle New York? He didn't in 2004. And, other than Rivera, I don't like their bullpen all that much. I don't think Joba Chamberlain is good at all. In fact, had he come up with, say, the Padres I don't think anyone would have thought all that much of him. Inconsistent, no command, doesn't know how to pitch. They're going to miss Phil Hughes in the eighth inning. On the bright side, of course, is they have the resources to go out and fix these problems. Am I nitpicking? Yes. The Yankees are loaded. But so are Boston and Tampa Bay and I have to have a reason for leaving one of them out of the playoffs. These are my reasons for leaving out New York.
2. Boston (95): Love, love, love, love, love the pitching. I don't think John Lackey will be a good long-term investment for Boston but I think he'll be excellent for them this year, behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Beckett is the best active big-game pitcher in the game and Lester is a possible Cy Young winner. I really like Daniel Bard in the eighth inning setting up Jonathan Papelbon, who I think will be better than he was in an inconsistent 2009 (his numbers don't reflect how inconsistent he was). They're as good as anyone but Seattle defensively as they've moved toward run prevention and I think they still have some excellent sticks in Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and Dustin Pedroia. And I think Adrian Gonzalez is coming in July.
1. Tampa Bay (98): Everyone said they were the best team this spring and it's the last hurrah for this group, with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena leaving after the season. So they'll make this year count. With those two, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton, they have an excellent core of players (although Upton has to bounce back from a miserable 2009; I think he will or else they'll give Desmond Jennings a shot later in the season). Everyone seems to love Sean Rodriguez. There are those that think Matt Garza could be on his way to a Cy Young season. The bullpen is a little iffy but I think it will hold up if J.P. Howell can return fairly soon. Of course, if they fall behind they'll dump Crawford and Pena, but if they stay in it I think they will add a little payroll for a short-term fix (no one whose contract extends into 2011, unless they make virtually no money). Their talent level is so high and their window so small that I think the Rays are going to take advantage of the situation and have a huge year. I just wish they could keep it together.
ALCS: Tampa Bay over Boston
MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
Cy Young: Brett Anderson, Oakland
Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, Baltimore
Comeback Player: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay
Remembering Hank
Watching "Guru of Go," the latest ESPN 30 for 30 documentary, late last night. I really enjoyed it. My only complaint is that I wish it focused entirely on the Loyola Marymount teams as opposed to Paul Westhead's entire coaching career.
It brought back vivid memories of Loyola Marymount's 1990 season. I will never forget the emotional feelings Hank Gathers' March 4, 1990 death spurred across the country. Here is how ESPN covered his death, with Chris Berman and Dan Patrick anchoring SportsCenter and Chris Myers reporting on the scene:
I vividly remember seeing the video of Hank's last dunk against Portland in the West Coast Conference semifinal and then collapsing on the court. And like everyone else, I immediately became an LMU fan, at least for the rest of that season. I remember watching as Bo Kimble shooting his free throws left-handed, in honor of Hank who had tried shooting them lefty because he was failing at them shooting them right-handed, and cheering loudly in my living room when he sank them. And I will never forget the second round game, when the Lions ran up and down the floor and put 149 points on defending national champion Michigan.
Every year, when CBS rolls out the various "One Shining Moments" (as they proudly call them) during the tournament, the one they never show is the LMU-Michigan game. They always sho Kimble's lefty free throws. They never show this game though and it ranks as one of my top four NCAA Tournament games that I watched live (along with Duke's upset of UNLV in 1991, Duke's epic win over Kentucky on Laettner's shot in 1992 and this year's Kansas State-Xavier double overtime classic that just joined the list). Loyola Marymount 149, Michigan 115. It was the high point of Westhead's tenure, even as it was coming on the heels of the lowest point. Jeff Fryer made 11 three-pointers in that game. 11. He scored 41 points. No one in college basketball history has ever been better from long range in one game than Fryer was in that game. J.J. Redick on his best day couldn't compare to Fryer in this game. And the segment on this game in 30 for 30 brought back memories of that game as well.
Butler is captivating America this year, and the whole country save the gamblers and its students and alums will be rooting against hated Duke tomorrow night. But Butler cannot possibly captivate America the way that LMU team did. This small school from the tiny WCC was the most entertaining team any of us had ever seen, playing with a purpose that no other team ever had. The emotions they brought out in everyone cannot be topped.
It brought back vivid memories of Loyola Marymount's 1990 season. I will never forget the emotional feelings Hank Gathers' March 4, 1990 death spurred across the country. Here is how ESPN covered his death, with Chris Berman and Dan Patrick anchoring SportsCenter and Chris Myers reporting on the scene:
I vividly remember seeing the video of Hank's last dunk against Portland in the West Coast Conference semifinal and then collapsing on the court. And like everyone else, I immediately became an LMU fan, at least for the rest of that season. I remember watching as Bo Kimble shooting his free throws left-handed, in honor of Hank who had tried shooting them lefty because he was failing at them shooting them right-handed, and cheering loudly in my living room when he sank them. And I will never forget the second round game, when the Lions ran up and down the floor and put 149 points on defending national champion Michigan.
Every year, when CBS rolls out the various "One Shining Moments" (as they proudly call them) during the tournament, the one they never show is the LMU-Michigan game. They always sho Kimble's lefty free throws. They never show this game though and it ranks as one of my top four NCAA Tournament games that I watched live (along with Duke's upset of UNLV in 1991, Duke's epic win over Kentucky on Laettner's shot in 1992 and this year's Kansas State-Xavier double overtime classic that just joined the list). Loyola Marymount 149, Michigan 115. It was the high point of Westhead's tenure, even as it was coming on the heels of the lowest point. Jeff Fryer made 11 three-pointers in that game. 11. He scored 41 points. No one in college basketball history has ever been better from long range in one game than Fryer was in that game. J.J. Redick on his best day couldn't compare to Fryer in this game. And the segment on this game in 30 for 30 brought back memories of that game as well.
Butler is captivating America this year, and the whole country save the gamblers and its students and alums will be rooting against hated Duke tomorrow night. But Butler cannot possibly captivate America the way that LMU team did. This small school from the tiny WCC was the most entertaining team any of us had ever seen, playing with a purpose that no other team ever had. The emotions they brought out in everyone cannot be topped.
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