April 5, 2010

Veterans or one-and-dones?

Neither Duke nor Butler had the best players in the nation this year. There were no Evan Turners or John Walls to be seen. What both teams had were talented, hard-nosed, NCAA Tournament-tested veterans. Maybe these guys aren't going to dazzle in the NBA but they're tough, gritty, clutch players who are battle-tested and play well together.

And I don't know if you noticed but freshman dominated teams haven't exactly been winning national championships. Nor are teams led by freshman. In the one-and-done era that began with the 2005-2006 campaign, not a single one-and-done player has been a top-level player on a championship team and, really, only one national champion have ever been led by a freshman.

Yes, there have been freshmen to play starring roles on Final Four teams. Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Tyrus Thomas all played starring roles since the one-and-done era began and, going further back, Michigan's Fab Five were all freshmen starters when they reached the championship game in 1991. But as far as winning national championships?

There are many teams that won national championships with freshmen playing key roles but the list of teams whose top player (or perhaps second best player can be included as well) really begins and ends with 2003 Syracuse, led by Carmelo Anthony. All of the other national championships--all of them--have been won by teams whose core had played together for a couple years, like Florida's back-to-back championship squads and this Duke team. Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and Brian Zoubek have been together for three years and it showed.

Anthony and Syracuse proved that a freshman can lead a team to a national championship. Derrick Rose had all but won it for Memphis in 2008 before they suffered one of the greatest collapses in college basketball history in blowing a nine-point lead down the stretch before falling to Kansas in overtime. But history shows that the one-and-done, freshman-dominated mentality generally doesn't translate to winning national championships.

John Calipari has been the master of the one-and-done star, with Rose in 2008 and Tyreke Evans in 2009 leading his Memphis team to the NCAA Tournament. This year, his Kentucky squad was led by freshmen Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Bledsoe. But while he seems to have one of the very best players each year, the strategy hasn't yet yielded a national championship. Instead, it's teams that play together that are winning the hardware.

Makes one wonder if coaches should target kids that are going to stay three or four years to try and build a cohesive group that grows together over time, like these Blue Devils were, or if they should continue going for the one-and-done kids that seem to collapse under the pressure. O.J. Mayo, Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant, for all of their talent, didn't even get to the Sweet 16 in their one year before bolting for the NBA. Scheyer and Singler lost in the first round in their first Tournament together and now they're national champions.

At the very least, it's something to think about.

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