American League preview

The American League season begins tonight with the Yankees and Red Sox (over under on time of game: 3 hours, 46 minutes). Here's a preview of the Junior Circuit (shouldn't that name be changed, given that the AL has been the superior league since at least 1999?).

14. Kansas City (55 wins): I'd honestly like to give them just 33 wins, those representing all of Zack Greinke's starts, but I figure not even the Royals are that bad. I really believe this team has a chance to be one of the worst of all-time. Other than Greinke and closer Joakim Soria, I cannot find a single bright spot on this team. Rick Ankiel? Billy Butler? Alberto Callaspo? Blecch. Alex Gordon (who starts the year on the DL) hasn't come close to being any good. On the bright side, there's Greinke (cannot wait for him to be traded, just so that he can pitch for a contender), a beautiful ballpark and Joe Posnanski's columns bagging on their ineptitude, so at least there's that. I wonder what a contender with a so-so closer (St. Louis? Minnesota? Seattle? Philadelphia?) would offer the Royals for Soria in late July.

13. Toronto (73): They re-signed Adam Lind for $18 million over four years, plus three team options. You read that right. So all is not lost. And fans can still go to the SkyDome (or whatever its called now) and have sex in the third inning. So there's that. And there's Ricky Romero. Beyond that, I'm not sure what there is to like. They have a lot of players who would be good complimentary players on a contender (Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez) playing too big a role and Vernon Wells, he of the worst contract in baseball history (owed a whopping $98.5 million over the next five years). Of course, it's all necessary to rebuild this team after the Roy Halladay trade.

12. Cleveland (74): Here's the problem: they're relying on too many comeback years to be contenders. Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Jake Westbrook, Fausto Carmona. They can't all succeed, can they? But I like their direction. Sizemore is a stud and will bounce back. Everyone has been raving about Carmona's spring (color me skeptical because of his mediocre strikeout rate, even in his magical 2007). Love Carlos Santana, who should be with the big club now. I think Chris Perez has a future as a top-of-the-line closer and should hold on to the job even after Kerry Wood comes back. Shin-Soo Choo is a good player. Matt LaPorta projects as a big-time power hitter (he was the key to the CC Sabathia trade to Milwaukee in 2008). I like Justin Masterson. But it's all a couple years away.

11. Baltimore (77): Peter Angelos continues to be a thorn in this franchise's side. Too bad he's the owner. But they have a young core now: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen. The future could be bright. And if Matusz, Guthrie and Bergesen mature faster than expected, they could reach .500. But any team starting Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins on the corners and using Mike Gonzalez as a closer (rather than as a lefty specialist) scares me. And did I mention their shortstop platoon is Cesar Izturis and Julio Lugo?

10. Texas (79): I wonder if Ron Washington can lead them after his cocaine admission. I wonder if the weight of Nolan Ryan's 92-win prediction will be too much for them. I really, really wonder about any team that calls Scott Feldman and perpetually injured Rich Harden (who had trouble hitting 87 in the spring) their top two starting pitchers.

9. Detroit (80): Maybe I'm underestimating a team that has Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer fronting their rotation. And their bullpen should be far better now that Jose Valverde has signed on to close. Miguel Cabrera is ready for a monster year after kicking his alcohol habit and I think the Johnny Damon signing was a good one. But there's something missing here. Maybe it's that their relying on two rookies at key positions up the middle in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore, or that Dontrelle Willis is one of their starting pitchers, but I think something is missing.

8. Chicago (82): Really like their rotation with Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, Gavin Floyd and John Denks. This Gordon Beckham is an emerging star. Don't like anything else about this team.

7. Seattle (84): I would love for this team to be good, just so Ken Griffey Jr. can go out on a contender, but any lineup that's hitting Milton Bradley cleanup is in trouble. They will be involved in a lot of 3-2 games, won't beat themselves in the field (should be the best defensive team in baseball), and have two studs fronting the rotation (although Cliff Lee is currently on the DL) but I just feel like this team won't score enough runs to put together winning streaks. I see a lot of close wins at home and a lot of losses on the road. Love watching Ichiro though.

6. Oakland (85): I was really tempted to pick them to win the West because I love their pitching. I think Brett Anderson could be a Cy Young candidate this year and I think Ben Sheets and Justin Duchsherer are coming on. And Andrew Bailey is a hammer at the end of games. But they won't score enough runs to make the postseason. Too much inexperience. And can we please move this team to San Jose already?

5. Minnesota (86): The injury to Joe Nathan drops them from being a potential 90-win team. I've seen enough teams undermined by crappy bullpens to know that closers are important, no matter what the stat-heads say (and I'm a believer in the statistical evidence, most of the time). There's just something about those final three outs that takes some sort of intestinal fortitude that the statistics can't measure and I can't see Jon Rauch being that reliable. Hopefully they go out and get Heath Bell. I really like Target Field and I love any lineup that has Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Denard Span (and I could see Jim Thome having a bounce-back year too). I foresee a big comeback from Francisco Liriano as well. If they get a closer, this will be a team equipped to win a playoff series. Call the Royals for Soria.

4. Los Angeles (87): Losing Chone Figgins hurts their lineup but this is an OPS machine of a team. Hideki Matsui is an upgrade over Vladimir Guerrero at this point. What I don't like about the Angels is their pitching. Actually, I take that back. What I don't like about the Angels in the playoffs is their pitching. I think they have the deepest rotation in the AL but, with John Lackey gone, they don't have any bulldog to lead them in October. They're built for the regular season grind but not the playoffs unless either Jered Weaver or Ervin Santana takes a big step forward. There's no ace here.

3. New York (94): Some say the Yankees could be better than last year. I say they won't be. At some point, age is going to catch up to the Jeter-Posada-Rivera-Pettitte quartet and even if it isn't in performance, it could be in terms of injuries. And I really worry about Posada defensively and in calling a game. They're going to miss Jose Molina more than they realize because the pitchers were better with him behind the plate and because it will be harder to spell Posada with a different catcher by moving him to DH. Speaking of DHs, I don't believe for a second that OBP machine Nick Johnson is an upgrade over the departed Hideki Matsui. Johnson is always injured. And in Matsui and Johnny Damon, they let go of two guys who took some really tough at-bats. Plus, it seems like A.J. Burnett is due for an injury, not to mention that he no longer has Molina to catch him (we all remember the battle over who would catch him in the postseason last October). Can Javier Vazquez handle New York? He didn't in 2004. And, other than Rivera, I don't like their bullpen all that much. I don't think Joba Chamberlain is good at all. In fact, had he come up with, say, the Padres I don't think anyone would have thought all that much of him. Inconsistent, no command, doesn't know how to pitch. They're going to miss Phil Hughes in the eighth inning. On the bright side, of course, is they have the resources to go out and fix these problems. Am I nitpicking? Yes. The Yankees are loaded. But so are Boston and Tampa Bay and I have to have a reason for leaving one of them out of the playoffs. These are my reasons for leaving out New York.

2. Boston (95): Love, love, love, love, love the pitching. I don't think John Lackey will be a good long-term investment for Boston but I think he'll be excellent for them this year, behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Beckett is the best active big-game pitcher in the game and Lester is a possible Cy Young winner. I really like Daniel Bard in the eighth inning setting up Jonathan Papelbon, who I think will be better than he was in an inconsistent 2009 (his numbers don't reflect how inconsistent he was). They're as good as anyone but Seattle defensively as they've moved toward run prevention and I think they still have some excellent sticks in Kevin Youkilis, Victor Martinez and Dustin Pedroia. And I think Adrian Gonzalez is coming in July.

1. Tampa Bay (98):  Everyone said they were the best team this spring and it's the last hurrah for this group, with Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena leaving after the season. So they'll make this year count. With those two, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and B.J. Upton, they have an excellent core of players (although Upton has to bounce back from a miserable 2009; I think he will or else they'll give Desmond Jennings a shot later in the season). Everyone seems to love Sean Rodriguez. There are those that think Matt Garza could be on his way to a Cy Young season. The bullpen is a little iffy but I think it will hold up if J.P. Howell can return fairly soon. Of course, if they fall behind they'll dump Crawford and Pena, but if they stay in it I think they will add a little payroll for a short-term fix (no one whose contract extends into 2011, unless they make virtually no money). Their talent level is so high and their window so small that I think the Rays are going to take advantage of the situation and have a huge year. I just wish they could keep it together.

ALCS: Tampa Bay over Boston

MVP: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

Cy Young: Brett Anderson, Oakland

Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz, Baltimore

Comeback Player: B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay