16. Pittsburgh (62 wins): 18th straight losing season, here they come! After trading away everyone with a pulse or a salary last season, the Pirates are told their fans, "Not only do we suck this year but we're gonna suck next year too! Pirates fever! Catch it!" So while waiting for Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata to arrive (and for their sake, let's hope it's at some point this season), fans in Pittsburgh can wonder how long it will be until Andrew McCutchen is on the way out and try to figure out what the Steelers do with Ben Roethlisberger. There's not much to like here. If not for the ballpark, there'd probably be nothing to like here.
15. San Diego (63): Kyle Blanks still qualifies as a rookie, having had only 148 at-bats last season, and he is a real candidate to be the Rookie of the Year, having hit 10 homers in those 148 A-Bs in 2009. So there's that. Then there are Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell, who figure to be on the move come July as the Padres continue their massive rebuilding project and payroll slash. I'm not sure what there is to be overly fired up about here. Their lineup is thin beyond Gonzalez and Blanks, and their pitching is reliant on Chris Young coming back from injury. I guess they could win some low-scoring games behind Young and Jon Garland in their pitcher-friendly park but, somehow, I don't think new play-by-play voice Dick Enberg is going to be positively saying his trademark "Oh my!" for much of what the Padres do this season.
14. Houston (65): They've needed to blow it up for about four years now but have stubbornly kept a veteran core. Almost as if he was trying to stick his middle finger up at his fans, when it was time to rebuild owner Drayton McLane decided to hire Ed Wade as the general manager a few years ago when Gerry Hunsicker departed. Wade had quite clearly established himself as one of the game's worst GMs when he was with the Phillies, a franchise that has prospered since he was shown the door. Lance Berkman opens the year on the DL. They spent actual money on third baseman Pedro Feliz and closer/setup man Brandon Lyon (Lyon already lost the closer job to Matt Lindstrom; so much for that three-year, $15 million deal Wade idiotically gave him). They figure to have four everyday players 33 or older which would be okay if this team won 94 games last year rather than the 74 they actually won. McLane should do what the Pirates did last year and trade all of these guys by the deadline. I have no doubt that they could command a lot for Roy Oswalt and that a DH-needy team in the AL would give up some value for the extremely Carlos Lee. Kaz Matsui could fill a need for someone (Feliz can't; he's terrible). But McLane won't do it and this franchise will fall further and further into the abyss. And to this, from 1995-2005, this was one of the top franchises in the NL.
13. Washington (71): I'm clearly optimistic about the Nationals because I'm projecting a 12-win improvement over last season's wretched 103-loss performance. I like some of the moves this team has made since Mike Rizzo replaced Jim Bowden as GM. They might be able to help themselves out more during the season by dealing Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, who at least may be able to drive in some runs early in the year when Nyger Morgan gets on base. I think Morgan has a chance to be an excellent leadoff hitter. Ryan Zimmerman is a stud. Going with Ian Desmond instead of Cristian Guzman at short is proof that this team is committed to building the right way. I don't think giving Pudge Rodriguez two years was smart but I do like his addition for 2010 to help the pitching staff along, a staff that has the underrated John Lannan, picked up innings-eater Jason Marquis, and have the rehabbing Chien-Ming Wang and uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg coming in June. It's progress.
12. New York (75): I'm not sure there has been a GM who has done less than Omar Minaya this decade. When running the Expos, he sent Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips to the Indians for deadline-fix Bartolo Colon, operating under the assumption the franchise would be contracted. It wasn't. Had that deal not been made, where would the Nationals be now? Then he moved on to the Mets, acquired one Hispanic player after another (Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Francisco Rodriguez, et al) and now has an old team that is in decline even before accounting for Beltran being out until June and Jose Reyes starting the year on the DL. The Mets project a payroll of $122 million and I think winning 85 games would be overachieving. What does that say about the contracts the GM gave out? The starting pitching after Santana is awful (though I grant that Citi Field will help them) and while I don't have a problem with the four-year deal they gave Jason Bay, per se (it must have been tough for Minaya to give $66 million to someone who isn't Hispanic), I worry about his production suffering after leaving Fenway for Citi Field. The move from Shea clearly affected David Wright last season. There's not a lot to like here. It may be about time to start over.
11. Chicago (77): Everything that could go wrong for the Cubs last season did. They're banking on improved health and Milton Bradley being gone to revert the team to 2007-2008 standards (save for getting swept in the NLDS both years). Sorry, I don't see it. I see an old team with declining players, a lousy bullpen headed by new closer Carlos Marmol who was inconsistent last season (4.06 fielding independent ERA and 1.46 WHIP) as a setup man, and a so-so rotation. Derrek Lee is 34. So is Alfonso Soriano (and Soriano is terrible anyway--his wins above replacement number was actually negative last season so, in his case, WAR needs to be renamed wins below replacement). Aramis Ramirez is 31. One of the so-called young guys, Ryan Theriot, is 30. Ryan Dempster is 32. Rehabbing Ted Lilly is 34. Marlon Byrd is 32. Kosuke Fukudome is lousy and 32. Really, only Carlos Zambrano is still in prime age (28) and he's both a hot-head and has a difficult time staying in shape. Really, this is probably the last hurrah for this group of Cubs, although most of these guys are signed beyond this season (Soriano is signed through 2014--feel bad for you Cubs fans) meaning next year and the year after will probably be even worse. The smart move would be to deal Ramirez, signed through next season with a 2012 option, for a couple of upper-level prospects and move Lee, a pending free agent after the season, but something tells me Jim Hendry will stand pat. And speaking of Hendry, new owner Tom Ricketts should probably find someone better at running a baseball team to be the general manager.
10. San Francisco (78): Love the pitching, led by Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Hate the lineup. It's not going to score many runs and, sorry, but signing Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa doesn't represent much of an improvement over a lineup that sagged miserably last season. Other than Pablo Sandoval, there's nothing to like about the bats here, and that's what will do in the Giants.
9. Milwaukee (83): I'm not sure what to make of the Brewers. Obviously they have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. I love Alcides Escobar as a slap hitter and glove at shortstop. I think Casey McGehee can build on last season. I have no idea what to expect out of Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, both coming off lousy seasons. The thought of Jim Edmonds playing regularly at 39 and after spending 2009 running his St. Louis nightclub worries me. And I don't know what to make of the pitching additions of Randy Wolf and Doug Davis behind ace Yovani Gallardo (Wolf can't be as good as last year, can he?). Like I said, I don't know what to think. I have a question though: at what point do the Brewers decide to think about moving Prince? He's a Scott Boras client and thus will be looking to get paid, something that seems unlikely in Milwaukee, and ownership has to know that. Given that Albert Pujols is quite possibly the only better hitter in the NL, that payday could be a monster.
8. Cincinnati (84): This is a team that's coming. In fact, if Dusty Baker weren't the manager, I may have them penciled in for closer to 90 wins. Somehow, though, I can see him ruining the good collection of young arms they have--Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake, with Aroldis Chapman on the way--something he began doing last season with Edinson Volquez (likely out until August). This could be the rotation of the future in the NL if Dusty doesn't ruin it first and I sort of feel like the best thing for their long-term health would be for the Reds to get out to a 10-24 start, Dusty to be fired and a new manager come in that knows how to handle young arms. The lineup has a chance to be really good if Jay Bruce lives up to his hype and has the sort of breakout season Joey Votto had last season. It's been a long time since Reds fans have had reason for real optimism but they have it now. The young kids this organization has developed in the last four or five years is as good as any team's collection of homegrown talent in the National League.
7. Los Angeles (84): The McCourts divorce has already ruined this season. This team badly needed a starting pitcher in the offseason and let Randy Wolf go and didn't try for either Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee because the McCourts were busy fighting each other in court. So much for the momentum of the last two seasons. It's too bad too because their young lineup has really emerged (Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, especially) and their bullpen is loaded. But Vicente Padilla is their opening day starter which should tell you everything. Oh, and what about Manny Ramirez? Everyone questioned why he struggled so much last season after coming back from a PEDs suspension, failing to make the obvious connection that players in their upper-30s usually aren't great without the help of said PEDs. I wonder how he'll do this season if he's clean. CHONE projects him as .280/.374/.511 and that seems optimistic to me in what I believe will be Manny Being Manny's final season.
6. Arizona (86): Potentially a real threat if Chris Young and Conor Jackson give them anything. There's a lot to like in Justin Upton (who has a real chance to make a leap to elite status this season), Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero and Mark Reynolds. If Brandon Webb comes back by June and looks anything like he did before the injuries, how can one not like a rotation fronted by Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson? Of course, maybe all these young guys we all keep expecting to be good (I'm looking at you, Stephen Drew) never will be.
5. Florida (86): I admit it's a bit disconcerting that they willingly traded for Nate Robertson at the end of the spring but he can be passable in a rotation that is headed by Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, and which has Anibal Sanchez looking like he's on the comeback trail. Their lineup isn't half bad either, led by Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Chris Coghlan. It's time for Cameron Maybin to arrive. I don't think their defense is any good but their pitching and lineup are. Plus, the Marlins always win more than you think they should.
4. Atlanta (89): Everyone loves Atlanta this spring, partially because everyone thinks Jason Heyward is going to be amazing right off the bat. Heyward was said to be the most impressive rookie in the Grapefruit League since Albert Pujols destroyed the ball in 2001 and all Pujols did was have the greatest rookie season of all-time that season as he began a historically great career. It's hard to project any player to be that great so soon though and Heyward is only 20 (Pujols was only 21). Still, there's a lot to like on a team that needs three big injury comebacks to work out in Billy Wagner, Tim Hudson and Troy Glaus. Wagner pitched well for Boston last September so he should be fine. Hudson had an awesome spring and, after a sluggish start, Glaus came on late. These three are additions to the team, as is Heyward (Bill James projects him to have a .303/.371/.465 season and if he does that, look out, world), that they didn't have last season. Belief in Hudson's recovery allowed them to move Javier Vazquez (one of the five best pitchers in the NL last season) for Melky Cabrera (potentially a key move because Nate McLouth is trying to give away his centerfield job). I like Martin Prado as a do-everything guy and Yunel Escobar is a pretty good offensive shortstop. If Tommy Hanson builds on his rookie season and Hudson is back, the starting pitching could be really, really good. Of course, it could all be derailed too if those comebacks don't turn out well and Chipper Jones has nothing left but I think Bobby Cox's final season will be a good one.
3. Colorado (91): Loaded. It took forever but Dan O'Dowd finally figured out how to build a real team in Colorado (the Humidor helped). I love the young talent they have in Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler. Todd Helton still can hit. Garrett Atkins is gone, and takes with him a black hole in the lineup. And no one realizes how good the pitching is, especially Ubaldo Jimenez whom many have tabbed as a breakout star for 2010. This was the best team in the NL from Memorial Day on last season and everyone of note is back. Look out for this team for the next 3-4 years.
2. Philadelphia (93): First, the bad news: this bullpen could be a train wreck. Their best hope for a successful bullpen is for Ryan Madson to be lights-out as the closer while Brad Lidge is on the DL, causing Charlie Manuel to keep him as the closer. Now that I've nitpicked about the bullpen, I'll move on and tell you that this is easily the best lineup in the National League with the Utley-Rollins-Howard trio unmatched. Rollins can't help but be better this season than he was last. I've become a big believer in Jayson Werth and while I can't see Raul Ibanez repeating his 2009, I can see him being a tough out in this lineup. Had they managed to get Roy Halladay and kept Cliff Lee, this starting rotation would have been scary. As it is, they have Halladay and Cole Hamels, who everyone says is going to have a big season after a poor 2009. One can only imagine how Halladay will do in the NL after years of pitching so much against the Yankees and Red Sox. Could his ERA drop under 2.50 for the season? And how fired up is he going to be to pitch in a pennant race and in October? No National League team has appeared in three straight World Series since the 1942-44 Cardinals and the Phillies have a real chance to do it. My only concern: they've stayed really, really healthy these last couple years and one of these years, one figures a key injury will slow them down somewhere. But even if that happens, they shouldn't miss the playoffs unless something catastrophic happens.
1. St. Louis (94): The core of this team is as good as any in the National League. Albert Pujols is the game's best player. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright offer a one-two punch at the top of the rotation better than any other. Yadier Molina takes tough at-bats and is better behind the plate than anyone else in the game. Matt Holliday is a legitimate All-Star (although I think they'll be regretting that contract in 2015). Lots of people foresee a breakout season from Colby Rasmus. They are as fundamentally sound as any team in the game and they don't give away anything because Tony La Russa won't allow them to. In the NL Central, the Cardinals could have a shot to win 100 games. Two things that are worrisome: they have a very weak bench and a mediocre bullpen. Ryan Franklin outpitched his expected performance based on peripherals last season and one cannot possibly expect him to be as good. And their bench is full of veteran minor league outfielders that are really 4A players. If anything happens to Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter or Wainwright, trouble is likely ahead (although I think they can survive a short-term loss to Carpenter or Wainwright because I fully expect Brad Penny, pitching for a contract, to thrive under Dave Duncan's tutelage). But if they stay healthy, I think they're in the best position to win the most games in the NL.
NLCS: Colorado over St. Louis
MVP: Albert Pujols, St. Louis
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward, Atlanta
Comeback Player: Billy Wagner, Atlanta
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