Prediction time

Well, it's time. Time to make predictions. I've outlined what I think would be a pretty cool overall scenario for the entire league (and I'm rooting for all of that, right down to the Iverson/T-Mac/Shaq trio ending up in New Jersey and Gilbert Arenas landing in New York). We've heard about the supposed summit between LeBron James, Dwyane Wade Chris and Bosh (which has been killed, in some regard--I knew I shouldn't have listened to Stephen A. Smith). And just today, both Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki have decided to opt out of their contracts, making them unrestricted free agents, while the Nets made a seemingly minor trade to create more cap room in their effort to sign LeBron or someone else.

Who are the major unrestricted free agents? Only: LeBron, D-Wade, Bosh, Dirk, Pierce, Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Joe Johnson, David Lee, Ray Allen and Shaquille O'Neal.

Considered lesser on the importance scale but still extremely key pieces that are out there: John Salmons, Kyle Korver, Channing Frye, Udonis Haslem, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Mike Miller, Brad Miller, Nate Robinson, Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, Luke Ridnour, Brendan Haywood, Shannon Brown, Bobby Simmons and Raja Bell.

(And don't forget about Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson!)

Restricted free agents that are out there and could switch teams: Rudy Gay, Josh Childress (back from Greece!), Tyrus Thomas, Luis Scola and J.J. Redick.

The time has come to predict what's going to happen with the big free agents and the teams involved.

LeBRON JAMES: I cannot help but think he is Chicago bound. I think he will seriously think about going back to Cleveland and will be really intrigued by Dallas and Miami. But I think his desire to be the alpha dog keeps him away from Miami and the Cavaliers apparent unwillingness to engage in a sign-and-trade keeps him out of Dallas. It will come down to the Bulls and the Cavaliers, the ability to win championships and truly reach his goal of "Global Icon" versus loyalty to his hometown team. Global Icon wins.

DWAYNE WADE: Everyone has said it all along: Miami. I would be shocked if he ended up anywhere else, as would everyone else.

CHRIS BOSH: Everyone has said that Bosh, more than LeBron and D-Wade, wants the absolute max because he can't make up the money in endorsements the way those two can. That means it's sign-and-trade so that he can get the absolute max, something Toronto is said to be willing to engage in. That tells me that Bosh will end up in either New York, Chicago or Houston. Pat Riley only has two players on his Miami roster to deal in Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers and apparently no one wants Beasley. That means all he can offer Toronto are future draft picks. Is that worth more to Toronto than Eddy Curry's expiring deal (Knicks), Luol Deng (Bulls) or some combination of Scola, Shane Battier, Kevin Martin and Trevor Ariza (Houston)? Highly doubt it. I think the Rockets are a bigger factor than people will expect because Battier and Jared Jeffries both have expiring deals and because it's Bosh's hometown but I think, in the end, he hitches his wagon to LeBron and follows him where ever (well, maybe not to Cleveland). That means he goes to the Bulls in a sign-and-trade involving Deng.

DIRK NOWITZKI: Everyone assumes he's going stay in Dallas due to loyalty to Mark Cuban. And I'm no different; I assume he'll sign a four-year extension to remain a member of the Mavericks. I don't think it's a slam dunk though. I think Pat Riley will heavily court him, LeBron will try to join forces with him in Chicago (and maybe Dallas too except that Cleveland won't help fascilitate that) and that Phoenix will go hard after him (although for lesser money because Robert Sarver is involved). I think the opportunity to reunite with Steve Nash will make taking max money in Dallas or lesser money in Phoenix to play with his good buddy on a team that went to the conference finals this season will really, really weigh on Dirk but in the end, he'll stay loyal to Cuban.

PAUL PIERCE: I wouldn't put it past Danny Ainge to let Pierce (and Ray Allen) go to commence the rebuilding in Boston and I don't think it's out of the question that the Clippers will offer him the max to sign there. However, I really believe his opting out is just to set him up for one more payday in Boston. Wyc Grousbeck seems really committed to Pierce retiring a Celtic and so they will agree on a new deal that guarantees him more money than the $21 million he had coming to him prior to opting out.

AMAR'E STOUDEMIRE: He has said he'll stay in Phoenix if they offer him the max. The Suns no longer have a general manager, having let Steve Kerr and his top aides go. What about the last five years would make you believe that owner Robert Sarver will ante up? Nothing. So I think he leaves, with Miami and New York being the top contenders. Here's the problem with Miami: does anyone believe Pat Riley has any use for a player who can't defend? Yeah, I didn't think so. I see Stoudemire ending up with the Knicks in a sign-and-trade for a newly signed David Lee.

DAVID LEE: As outlined above, I think he and Amar'e somehow get swapped for each other and he ends up in Phoenix. He'll be a lot cheaper for Robert Sarver to pay and could be a really good fit with Steve Nash.

JOE JOHNSON: When Johnson left Phoenix for a decript Hawks team in 2005, it showed he would search for the highest bidder. To his credit, Johnson led the Hawks back to respectability after cashing in, something many highly paid players fail to do. I don't think Atlanta is going to offer him the max so he'll go to a high bidder. The Clippers have money to burn and with LeBron inevitably turning them down, Johnson may end up being the guy who they turn to. I think Johnson ends up deciding between the Clippers and Knicks and opts to go to New York, reuniting with Amar'e and Mike D'Antoni. Hey, Quentin Richardson is a free agent; maybe they can sign him! And maybe they can trade for Nash! Let's reunite the 2005 Suns!

CARLOS BOOZER: With Bosh, Dirk and Amar'e going elsewhere, Riley settles for Boozer, who will cost the Heat less than the max while providing a low-post presence and giving Miami flexibility to get some of the lesser targets to build a really deep team.

RAY ALLEN: Every contender will want Allen. Lakers? Check. Spurs? Check. Magic? Check. Thunder? Check. And many have said that he will follow some of the prime free agents to be the veteran presence who drains open shots. Miami and Chicago (or Cleveland--where ever LeBron ends up) will pursue him hard and I could see Oklahoma City doing the same but I think Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers (who I think will be back as Boston's head coach) will appeal to him to stick it for one more go-round with Boston.

SHAQUILLE O'NEAL: It depends what Shaq wants. Does he want one more payday (Dallas)? A chance to party (Nets)? Or how about an opportunity to beat Kobe Bryant in the NBA Finals? I kind of think the last one appeals to him and playing with older veterans who respect him has to be pleasing to his ego. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Shaq takes a deal for the veteran's exception with the Celtics. I know he likes Cuban and would love to play for him but now that he trails Kobe by one ring, the chance to beat him with the Lakers' fiercest rival has to appeal to Shaq's ego. And Boston needs a center to replace the injured Kendrick Perkins.

UDONIS HASLEM, RAJA BELL, CHANNING FRYE & TYSON CHANDLER: I see them all in Miami, joining Wade and Boozer. Riley loves bangers and guys who will protect the rim and rebound and that's what Haslem and Chandler are. He likes hard-nosed defenders and that's what Bell is. And the Heat need someone who can stretch the floor to bury the kick-out passes when Wade attacks the basket and that's what Chandler is (and I think Sarver will push him out of Phoenix since he's in line for a big raise over his $2 million salary this season). Riley may not have his dream of Wade-LeBron-Bosh come through but a Wade-Boozer-Haslem-Chandler-Frye-Bell team with Beasley and Mario Chalmers is pretty darn good.

DEREK FISHER & STEVE BLAKE: Everyone knows Fisher wants to be near doctors to treat his daughter's eye condition, which leaves the Lakers, Clippers and Knicks as his only options, and though Jerry Buss may want to cut payroll, he also wants to make sure Kobe is happy. No way the Lakers let Fisher walk. Blake is the backup they need to keep him fresh for playoff crunch time.

MIKE MILLER: He has said the time has come in his career where it's time to win. That means he has to take the a mid-level exception from someone or go to one of the teams below the cap. It's not going to be New Jersey or New York. I see it being the Bulls, who will have enough money to fit him in under the cap after dealing Deng to Toronto for Bosh.

BRAD MILLER & BRENDAN HAYWOOD: The Mavericks always seem to sign big men who can't play and they'll sign two more, although these two can play. Haywood will re-sign while Miller will give them a versatile two-way center with game on both ends to make the likes of Pau Gasol and Tim Duncan at least work for their points.

JOHN SALMONS: He's already turned down one offer from them and they've acquired Corey Maggette but I have to believe he and the Bucks will work it out. Right? Wrong. This is the guy who goes to New Jersey. He's not the splash the Nets were looking for but he will fit with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and Derrick Favors in the rebuilding of that team under Avery Johnson.

KYLE KORVER: I have no good reason for saying this but I think he'll end up with a contender who needs a three-point shooter. Given the money the Bulls and Heat are spending elsewhere, the lack of money the Celtics have and the filled teams in the West, it leads me to think a return to Utah is in the cards.

ALLEN IVERSON & TRACY McGRADY: Who needs past-their-prime bench help? I don't think Iverson will even be in the NBA. McGrady will be. He'll have to take virtually nothing and come off the bench. And you know what team strikes me as a really good fit if he's willing to do those two things? Boston, where he can play for his former coach in Orlando, Doc Rivers.

RUDY GAY: I know Memphis wants to keep him but I also know that Michael Heisley has never spent money. I think he'll end up getting an offer sheet for more than Heisley is willing to pay. The team? The Nets. They're a young team with pieces at the 1, 4 and 5 (and the 2, if they land Salmons), meaning their missing a player at the 3. Gay fits the bill for this young team.

LUIS SCOLA: Back to the Rockets.

JOSH CHILDRESS: Back from Greece and back to Atlanta, where the Hawks should have some cash to spend when Joe Johnson bolts.

J.J. REDICK: A year ago, he couldn't get off the Magic bench. Now, he's a key three-point shooter with a bit of mean streak and who took away crunch time minutes in the conference finals when Vince Carter predictably rolled over. No way does Orlando let him go.

The Shakeout...

Championship contenders: Lakers, Mavericks, Bulls, Heat, Magic, Celtics (if the Pierce-KG-Allen group has another year in them with a better bench and continued improvement from Rajon Rondo).

Possible championship contender: Thunder

Solid playoff teams: Suns, Spurs, Nuggets, Blazers, Rockets (if Yao gives them 50 games), Knicks

Fold the franchise: Cavaliers