How the NBA could change

This is the way I would like to see the offseason pan out. Everything below is realistic and could feasibly happen. Some of it probably actually will. All I know is this is a way to save some franchises, shake up the league and create some real playoff battles come May.


CHICAGO BULLS
In case you didn't already know it, I'm pretty sure LeBron James is winding up here for a max deal. In fact, people in the league are sure of it too. Some will say it needs to be a sign-and-trade for LeBron to get the absolute max since Cleveland can pay him more. I say Cleveland won't agree to it, that Dan Gilbert will essentially say to LeBron, "f--- you, I'm not helping you get out of here." So LeBron will take Chicago's max.

There's no reason for LeBron to go anywhere else. His marketing opportunities won't suffer in Chicago (Chicago seemed to work out fine for Michael Jordan) and his chance to win and win soon is by far greater with the Bulls than with anyone else.

I think that opens the door for them to get Chris Bosh as well. He too is an interesting sign-and-trade case and the Raptors have admitted that they'll agree to sign-and-trade him. But where? The Heat have no players left with which to sign and trade, unless Toronto is willing to sign him and take nothing back (and Bryan Colangelo can't be that nice a guy, right?). Same with the Knicks unless David Lee agrees to go to Toronto (and he'll have no shortage of suitors so why would he agree to that?). So that means Bosh will probably have to settle for the max from another team rather than through a sign-and-trade, unless he's willing to go to a losing situation. I don't see it. The Bulls could offer Luol Deng to Toronto but under this scenario, why would they have to? He'll join ranks with LeBron in Chicago for the max allowed for those switching teams. Both of those two will get starting salaries of about $16.63 million.

The Bulls will then use Deng ($11.35 million) and James Johnson ($1.7 million) in a sign-and-trade with Atlanta to get Joe Johnson (five years, starting at $13 million and increasing annually). Johnson reportedly turned down $60 million over four years ($15 million annually) from Atlanta but I think he'll take less to play with LeBron. He could get a max offer from the Knicks but if he has a chance to join ranks with LeBron, why wouldn't he take a little less? I think he will.

So the Bulls nucleus will be LeBron, Bosh, Johnson, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. I think they can fill in around that with their exceptions (Udonis Haslem? Nate Robinson?). Pencil them in for Christmas Day against the Lakers.

MIAMI HEAT
I don't think there is any doubt that Dwyane Wade re-signs with Miami, so long as they're successful in getting one other top free agent. The Heat are trying to create space to sign Wade and two other max guys but I don't think it will happen, mostly because I don't think LeBron wants to go to Miami and have to share the ball with Wade. He wants his own team, as well he should. Thus it will come down to Bosh and Amar'e Stoudemire going to Miami and since I don't think Robert Sarver is going to offer Amar'e a max deal (given all of his other cheap moves since taking over the Suns, I don't think this is far-fetched), he'll go get one elsewhere. Like, from the Heat.

With their leftover money, Pat Riley will start thinking about constructing a real team. All of Riley's good teams have had a defensive presence in the middle (Kareem, Ewing, Shaq) and so he'll go find such a player. There is a lot of speculation that Tyson Chandler will opt out of his last year in Charlotte, knowing that with the labor situation coming to a head next year he had better get a long-term deal. So he'll leave to get less this year but more over the next few. I say he goes to Miami for $32 million over four.

The Heat also will need someone to spread the floor, which sounds like a good situation for Channing Frye to come aboard for. Steve Kerr found Frye for $2 million last season and he had a breakout year in Phoenix. Sarver will let him go with the Heat getting him for $30 million over four years.

With their mid-level exception, Riley will need to find a point guard. Steve Blake or Luke Ridnour would make sense since both could play as the secondary ball-handler to Wade and be a steady enough complement to Mario Chalmers.

And once LeBron leaves Cleveland, I see the Cavaliers going one of two ways: taking on faded stars with bad contracts (Isiah Knicks style, so don't rule out the possibility of going after someone like Gilbert Arenas) or unloading for expiring deals. With the leftover cap space, Riley will out and get Anderson Varejao for a future first-round pick and a future second-round pick, giving his team some serious size with Stoudemire, Varejao, Chandler and Frye, plus Michael Beasley.

So here's the core of the Heat: Wade, Amar'e, Chandler, Frye, Blake, Varejao, Chalmers and Beasley, plus second-round picks Dexter Pittman, Jarvis Varnado, Latavious Williams and Da'Shaun Butler, who may not be available until 2011 because of the injury suffered at the Final Four. That's not as sexy as having Wade, Bosh and LeBron but it gives them a real team with some serious depth. If they go for a Wade-Bosh-LeBron trio, they're going to have to trade Beasley for nothing and then have a bunch of minimum salaried players around them. I can't see that team winning a championship.

And once he sees the roster he's assembled, I fully expect Riley to replace Erik Spoelstra as the head coach.

NEW YORK KNICKS
So what to do now that LeBron, Wade and Bosh have all decided not to take the Knicks money? Panic! Donnie Walsh tried but failed. Maybe he can get Joe Johnson to come but I don't see it happening because I think Johnson has had a taste of winning and wants that to continue. Maybe it can happen on an even lesser scale level than Atlanta has achieved the last few years with him and Carlos Boozer in New York but I doubt it.

Walsh has been selling the Knicks fans on the summer of 2010 since taking over two years ago so he can't just roll over the cap space if they don't get the big guns. He has to make a splash, no matter what. Right now his team has Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Sergio Rodriguez accounting for approximately $9.3 million in payroll, plus an $11.3 million expiring contract in the regrettable Eddy Curry. David Lee is also an unrestricted free agent but given all the promises made, I don't think the Knicks have a choice but to let him go and get some other splashy players.

So here's what they should do: sign Boozer to just under a max deal, something he isn't likely to get anywhere else. He doesn't play any defense so that should be a good fit with Mike D'Antoni. Sign Rafer Alston as their steady guard (four years, $28 million). Remember, he was the point guard on the 2009 Magic that made the Finals when Jameer Nelson was injured the entire playoffs (until returning in the middle of the Finals).

They need a center, preferably one that defends a little bit to play next to Boozer, although D'Antoni probably prefers one that doesn't. Using the veteran's exception, they can sign Brad Miller who will no doubt be leaving the Bulls as they pursue bigger things.

And now, for the splash: from the franchise that revived Latrell Sprewell after he choked P.J. Carlesimo, I give you Gilbert Arenas!

Washington desperately wants to get rid of Gilbert because they're turning the point guard position over to John Wall and because they don't want Gilbert to poison Wall. He also has the league's absolute worst contract (owed $80 million over the next four years). The Wizards are building toward the future and have a new business-savvy owner in Ted Leonsis. So he'll be more than happy to make this deal.

Why would the Knicks take on Arenas, who is a knucklehead and has hardly played the last few years because of injury and suspension? Because they have to make a splash this offseason and Arenas would be it. Walsh may, in theory, be too smart to want him but don't discount James Dolan getting involved to ensure something stupid like this happens. Plus, Arenas could actually thrive in D'Antoni's up-tempo, run-and-gun, seven-seconds-or-less offense and could electrify the MSG crowd like no player has in years. He could even do it regularly. What Gilbert has left is anyone's guess but it seems to me like this stage is the place to find out.

In order to get this done, the Wizards take back Eddy Curry's expiring contract ($11.3 million) and the $6.5 million gap in salaries will still work due to the cap space the Knicks have created.

So here's the team: Arenas and Alston in the backcourt, Boozer, Miller and Gallinari on the front line, Chandler and Rodriguez on the bench and second-round picks Andy Rautins and Landry Fields around too. That may not be the home run they were hoping for but that's at least a commendable team and one that has a chance to make the playoffs.

NEW JERSEY NETS
Everyone, myself included, wants Mikhail Prokhorov to make a big splash but a team that won 12 games last season won't easily get star players when teams that actually have a foundation in place can offer the same money. So the Nets will be left and high-and-dry. Avery Johnson will push for sticking with the status quo, building around Brook Lopez, Devin Harris and Derrick Favors. But what funs is that? We want Prokhorov to make a splash!

So here's what I want to see happen: Prokhorov going for marquee attention by signing Shaquille O'Neal, Allen Iverson and Tracy McGrady to one-year deals. Hey, it's the 2005 Eastern Conference all-stars! Only all three are washed up! While I could see Shaq signing on as a backup on a contender somewhere (San Antonio? Chicago?), he would love the party scene around the world Prokhorov could take him on while Iverson and McGrady just need a team to play on and will go where ever that is. And sure, Iverson will be miserable because Avery will eventually bury him on the bench while trying to develop a team but this could be fun for a little while.

I don't actually see this happening but I'm rooting for it for both the entertainment value and the comedy value. Plus, all three would be free agents next year again so the Nets will retain their cap flexibility whenever the league returns from the 2011 work stoppage (and Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony could be free agents by then).

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
With LeBron leaving, it's over. The franchise is dead. Basketball is essentially dead in Cleveland. I don't blame him for leaving and while I don't think it's a done deal yet, I do think it's happening. Dan Gilbert can go one of two ways: the crazy (try to get Gilbert Arenas for the likes of Mo Williams and Delonte West, sign Iverson and/or McGrady) or the conservative (sell off pieces for expiring contracts). Since I want the crazy to happen with the Knicks (Arenas) and Nets (Iverson, McGrady and Shaq), we'll say conservative. Besides, the three guys I have going to the Nets would much rather be on a 25-win team a mile away from New York than on a 25-win team in Cleveland.

One possible deal: Antawn Jamison to Dallas for Erick Dampier's expiring contract. Another: Mo Williams and Leon Powe to Golden State for the expiring deals of Kelenna Azuibuike and Vladimir Radmanovic (I think Don Nelson would actually do that to get another shooter). But whatever it is, for now it's time to tear it down in Cleveland.

BOSTON CELTICS
Do the Celtics have another run in them? I think they have to try, right? And they even have a little bit of flexibility to make a couple of moves to try to squeeze more run out of Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Everything, though, is predicated on Doc Rivers coming back because if he doesn't, they may not be able to make it work. Doc said repeatedly how tough a group of personalities the Celtics are to coach and I don't think just anyone can do it.

Pierce will either make $21.5 million next season, which would be the final season of his deal, or exercise an opt out. There is no way the aging Pierce will get another huge deal or max deal but he can still cash in beyond this season with the Celtics, to whom he is worth more than any other team. How about opting out and signing a three-year, $45 million extension with Boston? That would save them approximately $6.5 million on the cap while guaranteeing him an additional $23.5 million that probably won't be there after this season. Plus, he'd all but assure himself of finishing his career in Boston.

The next step is re-signing Ray Allen, an unrestricted free agent. Yes, he was horrific in the NBA Finals from Game 3 on but he's still an elite shooter, a solid defender who makes his opponents work (as Kobe Bryant's miserable series, other than the third quarter of Game 5, showed) and the best free throw shooter in the league. Allen made $20 million last season and that isn't happening again. And he's sure to have plenty of suitors as a free agent who can fit in on a winning team. But all things being equal, why not re-sign in Boston in the same role? Say, two years and $16 million. He knows how to play with Garnett, Pierce and Rajon Rondo, he likes Doc Rivers and he knows they're a contender (albeit one with a very small window to win). Why try to fit in somewhere new with a mid-level exception when he can make a little more with the Celtics and be in a place where he's comfortable? Plus, for as bad as he was most of the Finals, he was definitely the best of the Pierce-KG-Allen trio during the season.

The new deals for Pierce and Allen would save the Celtics around $18 million in one-year salary and though they would still be over the cap, they'd also have a lot more flexibility to use their exceptions knowing that they've somehow reduced payroll. Plus, everyone knows they have to create a better supporting cast around the three future Hall of Famers so they are fresh for one more postseason battle. They have both the full mid-level exception and the veteran's bi-annual exception. And with the bi-annual exception, a good fit is Kurt Thomas. He's tough, which is key on the Celtics, he can defend and he can help make up for the absence of Kendrick Perkins, who is expected to miss much of the first half of the season with the injuries suffered in Game 6 of the Finals. At this stage of his career, Thomas likely will take a low salary to go to a contender. (This being said, there's talk that they are targeting Brad Miller).

With the mid-level, there are two options: J.J. Redick and Mike Miller. Redick is a restricted free agent with the Magic and I believe they would match any offer for him. Why? Because after being buried by Stan Van Gundy for three years, he really emerged this season and Orlando needs to keep him because they know they can't count on Vince Carter in crunch time. So Miller is the fit. He gives them a second guy who can spread the floor, a guy who can finish in transition, a white player who Boston fans love (they haven't had a key white contributor on a championship contender since Larry Bird and with Brian Scalabrine a free agent, they need to replace him with a white guy) and has said he's at the point of his career where he needs to play for a ring. Sounds like a good fit to me.

Boston also has one other chip they can use: Rasheed Wallace. Yes, Wallace has said he is going to retire, a good move considering he mailed in the entire regular season, but has apparently told the Celtics he will not file his retirement papers immediately, allowing them to use his $6.3 million salary as a trade chip. Whatever team that acquires him can then buy him out for $2-3 million and save the money. Given all the teams that are looking to get under the luxury tax or not spend money in preparation for the work stoppage, finding a team willing to save money on such a deal shouldn't be a problem.

The fit? James Posey. He was an vital contributor on Boston's 2008 title team but then left for New Orleans as a free agent. The salaries match up as does the team: the Hornets badly want to get under the luxury tax and will save money where ever they can in order to help with the sale of the team (hence the recent Chris Paul rumors). If they can replace Posey's $6.5 million with a buyout of Rasheed, they'll do it. Posey knows what the Celtics are all about and has proven himself on championship teams so he's a great fit for the Celtics.

So here's Boston's team: Pierce, KG, Allen, Rondo, Perkins, Posey, Miller, Thomas, Big Baby Davis, Avery Bradley and second-round pick Luke Harangody (who only sticks in the Scalabrine role), plus filler. That looks like a team that has one last run in it and that can compete with Miami, Chicago and Orlando.

ORLANDO MAGIC
Not a lot to do here. Would I love to see them replace Vince Carter with someone more reliable as a crunch-time scorer? Yes. But that's not going to happen. So they're essentially stuck with the same team as last season. Their only moves are to re-sign Redick and Matt Barnes (who is unrestricted) and I expect them to do so.

Thus, their team remains pretty much in tact: Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Redick, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus, plus rookies Daniel Orton and Stanley Robinson. Given that they went to the Finals in 2009 and the East Finals in 2010, this group should be fine. The only way to improve is to trade Carter's expiring deal for a better scorer at the two-guard spot but I don't see any realistic way of that happening, unless they're willing to take on Arenas but that would seriously complicate their ability to contend.

ATLANTA HAWKS
Not much they can do. With Joe Johnson gone, they can try to re-tool a little with new coach Larry Drew. They'll get back Deng in the sign-and-trade with Chicago and word is Josh Childress is ready to return from Greece. They can use the mid-level exception to sign Udonis Haslem to help fortify their frontcourt.

Their team: Childress, Deng, Haslem, Al Horford, Mike Bibby, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, rookie Jordan Crawford. Is that as good as last year? No. But last year's team completely rolled over in the playoffs against Orlando and this team is probably still a playoff team.

TORONTO RAPTORS
Bosh is gone and so is their hope. Bryan Colangelo started out with a bang but has gone down with a whimper the last few years. If I were them, there is no way I would give Bosh a max deal to try and keep him. Only franchise players should get max deals and in his career, Bosh has never won a playoff series and hasn't even gotten that far the last two years. It is fair to say his supporting cast hasn't been good but when you see what Tim Duncan did with the 2001 and 2002 Spurs, playing the same position and in a tougher Western Conference than the East has been the last few years, Bosh's performance is unacceptable for a franchise player.

The Raptors tried last season by signing Hedo Turkoglu. It didn't work and Hedo wants out. So here's a trade idea: Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack to Utah for Andrei Kirilenko's expiring contract. Utah would love to shed itself of payroll which is partially why they're going to let Boozer go without much effort to keep him, yet wants to remain competitive. Toronto would take on Kirilenko's $17.8 million for this season but would rid themselves of an unhappy Hedo who is owed $44 million over the next four years, and Jack who is owed $15.7 over the next three years. The Raptors can prepare for the lockout.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS
There's only one move for the Bucks: sign John Salmons. Say, $40 million over four years. For the first time in nearly a decade, Milwaukee has a competitive team that plays well together so they need to keep it together and Salmons was a huge part of that. They've acquired Corey Maggette and Chris Douglas-Roberts already to help things along and I would love to see them pickup someone like Kyle Korver with the mid-level exception but signing Salmons and adding Maggette is already going to put them over the cap so I can't see them spending more and having to pay the tax.

So here's the team: Salmons, Brandon Jennings, Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut (hoping his arm is healthy), Maggette, Douglas-Roberts, Carlos Delfino, Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute and rookie Larry Sanders. That's not a championship contender unless Jennings takes a huge step forward but it is a playoff team.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
This is a complete wild card to me for one reason: Michael Jordan. If he's as competitive and pathological about winning as an owner as he was as a player, who knows what he'll do to make that happen. Offer up half his team in a sign-and-trade for LeBron? I wouldn't rule it out. As it is, the Bobcats are about $10 million under the cap so Charlotte should be able to make reinforcements to what was a playoff team last year and you know Larry Brown will have them well-coached.

Wow. Suddenly the East has the sort of depth it has been lacking since the late 1980s. Chicago, Miami and Orlando are loaded, Boston is loaded if the Pierce-KG-Allen trio has another year in them, and the Knicks, Hawks, Bobcats and Bucks are solid playoff teams. The Nets and Wizards have young pieces in place to build around and the Cavaliers may as well just fold.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
As you can see, I think the big movers and shakers this offseason are going to be in the East. The Bulls, Heat, Knicks and Nets are the four teams that are really set up to make big moves this summer and it will be tough for any of the West contenders to make such a big splash. If you really believe that to be the case, it would seem that the Lakers are on their way to another NBA Finals since no one in the West is at their level. Right?

Maybe but not necessarily so. What if Phil Jackson doesn't come back (and he says he's leaning toward retirement)? Can this Lakers bunch really win without him? Will Kobe Bryant more regularly play the role of good teammate on the floor if Phil isn't around? Will Ron Artest remain somewhat in control if Phil isn't around? Will Pau Gasol remain happy to be the absolute No. 1 instead of sort of a co-No. 1 if Phil isn't around? Will Lamar Odom limit his weed smoking if Phil isn't around?

All of these are valid questions and there is talk that Dr. Jerry Buss is really into money-saving mode. Everyone knows about his position that Jackson should take a pay cut from his $12 million salary but what is now being reported is that he wants to trade Odom to save money, that he doesn't want the team to use the mid-level exception (even after reports surfaced this week that Kobe is lobbying the team to sign Raja Bell) and that he is asking his entire staff to take 20% paycuts, even those making just six figures annually. Apparently the Lakers didn't make enough money for Buss' tastes this playoff year.

With that in mind, you have to figure Shannon Brown is gone, overpaid by some lottery team that is impressed with his athleticism (Cleveland is a candidate, if Brian Shaw becomes their head coach). I can't imagine they'll be able to trade both Odom and Artest, who I figure they wouldn't mind moving, but I also have to believe that Buss can be talked into keeping them. The Lakers big advantage over other teams is their size. No one has three guys as big as Gasol, Odom and Andrew Bynum. That, and the best closer in the game, is what separates LA (and their Zen head coach).

My guess is they re-sign Derek Fisher (say, two years for $12 million) and then just fill in, letting Adam Morrison go to Europe and Brown go somewhere else. They'll still have a strong team though with the first six guys in tact (at least until Bynum's inevitable injuries) with Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic completing the rotation. That's a fairly thin squad, sort of like the Lakers last three-time champion, in 2002, was.

Buss' sudden frugalness means other teams can surpass the Lakers and it also eliminates the one proposition that I thought could really be doable: a sign-and-trade centered around Bynum and Walton to get Bosh from Toronto. But now I think it's clear that won't happen.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Tough spot for the aging Spurs, whose one valuable chip is Richard Jefferson's expiring deal. Using their mid-level exception to get someone like Udonis Haslem or Mike Miller would have made a lot of sense but they hope to bring Spanish MVP Tiago Splitter over to play next to Tim Duncan and it may cost them their full mid-level to get him to come over. Splitter says he wants to come to the NBA but is no longer bound by the rookie scale because it has been three years since he was drafted. He will be 27 next season and if he proves to be as good as, say, Pau Gasol, this becomes a huge bonus for the Spurs. Anything less though and San Antonio's decline continues.

Right now, the Spurs are looking at a team of Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Jefferson, Splitter, George Hill, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair. First-round pick James Anderson will contribute immediately, I think, and they have their bi-annual exception to get a veteran (Chris Duhon?). But is that a championship team? Three years ago, it's easily the favorite but that before Ginobili's mounting injuries and with Duncan three years younger. I still think this team is a major threat in the playoffs to win a series or two but I can't see them winning more than that.

Their one possible wild card is if the Hornets decide they absolutely have to trade Chris Paul because of their sale. If that happens, they can offer Parker (whose contract is expiring) and, say, Malik Hairston, plus a couple of No. 1 picks to try and get Paul. But such a move is highly unlikely and you have to figure other teams would try to trump it. Failing this sort of deal, the Spurs are stuck in the era between dynasty and time for a rebuild, sort of like the 1989 Celtics.

DALLAS MAVERICKS
Their offseason comes down to one thing: is Dirk Nowitzki going to leave? Part of me thinks he should. He's gone about as far as he's going to go as an alpha dog and his decline is about to hit. I think it would be a lot of fun to pair him and LeBron somewhere. And I really think he will agonize over the possibility of rejoining forces with Steve Nash in Phoenix. But in the end, his loyalty to Mark Cuban will prevail and Dirk will stay in Dallas for a max level extension.

The Mavericks were fairly close to being ready to challenge the Lakers last spring until they fell apart against San Antonio. They have another run in them, although I don't see any way of getting to the Finals unless Cuban can pull off an incredible sign-and-trade to get LeBron (say, Erick Dampier's expiring deal, DeShawn Stevenson's expiring deal and Eduardo Najera?). I don't think it's happening.

So what to do? Dampier might decide to play this season because he's angling for another contract. The last time he did that, Cuban stupidly overpaid. Now he's an asset and Cuban should use it. A possible match: Cleveland for Antawn Jamison. Once LeBron is gone, the Cavaliers will go into tear-down mode and seek expiring deals for their long-term contracts. Jamison didn't fit in Cleveland as a No. 2 option but he may work well as a fourth option in Dallas.

The Mavericks also should make full use of their exceptions. How about a return of Jamaal Magloire for the bi-annual? At the very least, he will be a big body to replace Dampier for 10 minutes a game. For the mid-level, how about Raja Bell? Since Jerry Buss doesn't want to spend money, why not go out and get a guy who knows how to defend Kobe? If Dallas wants to compete with the Lakers, defending Kobe and making him work is one of the most important things they need and we all know Bell won't back down against Bryant.

That gives them a team of Dirk, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Caron Butler, Shawn Marion, Jamison, Bell, Magloire and Rodrique Beaubois. Yeah, they're still a little small but they'll still score like crazy and a little more tough-minded with Bell. I like this team enough to consider them a possible conference finals team.

PHOENIX SUNS
This team should have kept Steve Kerr as general manager. They should keep Amar'e Stoudemire as a free agent (even with his defensive short-comings) and do the same with Channing Frye. They should have then used their mid-level on a helpful piece. But none of it will happen because Robert Sarver is a cheapskate. Kerr is gone, Amar'e should leave and Frye, who has a player option, should opt out (his value will never be higher than it is now). That leaves them with Steve Nash, Grant Hill, Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic, Louis Ahmundson and Jared Dudley. Actually, that's not a terrible group, especially since Nash makes everyone around him better as long as he's allowed to run.

With such a roster, the Suns will have about $11 million in cap space. That's not nearly enough to get Dirk but I think they'll try because Nash will beg Sarver to do so (and they could try to move Jason Richardson's expiring deal to create cap space). Ultimately, I think Dirk stays in Dallas but I have another option for Phoenix: David Lee. The Knicks aren't going to keep him because they have to change their team drastically due to all the promises they have made to their fans about this offseason and are going to be busy focusing on other sexier players who aren't associated with this disastrous decade of losing. That means Lee is going to go. If I'm the Suns, I sign Lee to a five-year, $55 million deal. This is doable if Robert Sarver doesn't screw it up.

Lee is a 20-12 guy playing on a fast team and we know any team with Nash is going to run. No, he's not Amar'e, but this is the sort of team he would excel with. Adding him to the lineup already in place keeps the Suns a contender, although not a championship-level team.

UTAH JAZZ
They're stuck in neutral and that's not changing this offseason. They're going to let Boozer go because they don't want to pay him and Paul Millsap and they don't want to pay the luxury tax. Their one trade asset is Andrei Kirilenko's expiring deal and as I outlined above, they should trade it to Toronto for Turkoglu and Jarrett Jack. Jack will give them a steady point guard to backup Deron Williams and Turkoglu will give them a shooter to hit the open shots when Williams penetrates and kicks while also creating matchup problems with his height.

If they can re-sign Kyle Korver as well they'll likely be just over the cap but under the luxury tax threshold and having a decent team: Williams, Millsap, Hedo, Korver, Mehmet Okur and Gordon Hayward, while filling in around them. That's a team that will be fundamentally sound playing for Jerry Sloan although will lack any sort of depth and probably be one-and-done in the playoffs.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Here is the team that can challenge the Lakers. In fact, they already did, in the opening round this season. They nearly won Game 6. Then who knows what could have happened. Sam Presti may be the league's best GM, understanding how to build a great team around a great player. While the Cavs tried to piece-meal a team of overpaid veterans around LeBron, the Thunder has put a lot of pieces around Durant to grow with him. They could be in the Finals next season. I really believe that. And they're about $6 million under the cap, giving them the flexibility to add a piece or two. Guys they should pursue: Kyle Korver and Ray Allen, although I don't think they'll get either. So how about this: Nick Collison's expiring deal to Cleveland for Mo Williams. The deal would continue to allow Cleveland to work on their rebuilding project with another expiring deal while adding only about $2.5 million to OKC's payroll. Williams is a good shooter who can space the floor, although I wouldn't count on him during crunch time. The acquisition of Cole Aldrich in the draft should more than make up for Collison's loss.

Picking up Morris Peterson was a good move for OKC too because they can use his expiring contract to get a piece during the season (maybe in a package for David West if New Orleans falls apart or has to tear down because of their sale?). And adding Daequan Cook worked out beautifully for them. Not only is he a decent three-point shooter but that deal essentially turned into a lottery pick: they got Cook at the 17th pick in the draft from Miami for a second-rounder in Miami's hopes of creating enough cap space to get three max free agents, used that pick on Eric Bledsoe, then turned that pick over to the Clippers for a future first-rounder. No matter how protected that pick is, OKC will eventually collect and it will almost certainly eventually be a lottery pick.

For now, OKC has Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Nenad Krstic, Mo-Pete, Thabo Sefolosha, Cook, Aldrich and I'm giving them Mo Williams. That right there is 12 usable players, highlighted by Durant. And the 12 all fulfill a variety of roles. And Mo-Pete is a tradeable asset. Look out, NBA, this team is ready.

HOUSTON ROCKETS
I had all sorts of ideas for the Rockets, especially because they have expiring contracts in Shane Battier, Jared Jeffries, Kyle Lowry and, most notably, Yao Ming. Then I remembered that I'm not nearly capable of trying to figure out what Darryl Morey would do because he's too smart a general manager who knows how to make use of quantitative analysis. I've figured out how to use it in baseball but not in basketball.

The only move I can ask them to do is to re-sign for Luis Scola for, say, $36 million over four years.

Anyway, this team won 42 games last year even though they got nothing from their two highest paid players (Yao and McGrady). McGrady is gone and Yao is presumably going to be healthy, although he always gets hurt and probably will again. For now, I think the Rockets should just stick with their core of Yao, Battier, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, Scola, Lowry, Chase Budninger, Chuck Hayes and Jordan Hill, with Jeffries as a potential trade chip. If Yao can give them 65-70 games, this is a 45-50 win team. If not, they're a .500+ team and they can try to move Yao's expiring contract during the season for teams stripping down for the work stoppage or angling for the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul.

DENVER NUGGETS
Another team I'm confounded by. The right additions could have them back in the West Finals and they may be good enough anyway with Carmelo, Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo. I'm concerned that they have too many loose cannons, although largely this group got them to the conference finals two years ago. Someone like Kyle Korver would be great here but they're over the cap and need to save their money for Carmelo.

This is a huge season for Denver because if they don't show improvement, Melo may leave. And Billups doesn't have many good years left.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
They won 50 games last season so they aren't going to completely fall apart, especially if Brandon Roy is healthy, but the firing of Kevin Pritchard basically tells me this team is headed to a decline because Paul Allen doesn't seem to know what he's doing. All Pritchard did was take a team full overpaid, overrated idiots who were so constantly fighting with the law that the community despised it and turned it completely over while rebuilding them into a solid playoff team. His one mistake? Oden over Durant. And at this point it has to be considered miraculous if Greg Oden gives them a healthy season.

They've already added Ryan Gomes, adding him to Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcus Camby, Andre Miller, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum, plus rookies Luke Babbitt and Elliot Williams. So this team has a good nucleus in place and should be on their way to another playoff season but who knows what's in store now that Allen is making basketball decisions.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
This team could go either way: a rise to prominence or a complete tear down. It all depends on if they can stay healthy (specifically Chris Paul) and how the sale of the franchise goes. This team already has a lot of good players, including a franchise player in Paul surrounded by David West, James Posey, Peja Stojakovic, Marcus Thornton, Emeka Okafor and Darren Collison. But with the team looking to save money and owner George Shinn always cutting costs, I can see them tearing this thing down.

I've already traded Posey to Boston for Rasheed Wallace, who will then officially be bought out and retire, saving the Hornets about $4 million. That alone could push them below the luxury tax. But after that it's anyone's guess.

Given how good Paul is, this team could win 50 games. But Shinn has made a career of stripping down teams to save a buck and if his sale of the team is impeded, I can see it happening again.
I mentioned before that I didn't think they would deal Paul but if they do, the Spurs can make a legitimate offer centered around Tony Parker. They can unload Stojakovic's expiring deal to a team that needs a shooter for future draft picks and they can move West, who has a really nice contract. And if they keep Paul, they could always trade his backup, the ever-cheap Collison, to a team willing to take back a big contract (like Stojakovic, for example).

Part of me actually would like to see this team stripped down if only because it would strengthen the other top teams. How about sending Stojakovic to Charlotte for Nazr Mohammed's expiring deal? How about sending Paul to San Antonio for the package outlined above? How about David West to Denver for J.R. Smith's expiring contract and Chris Andersen? I just improved the Bobcats standing in the East, made the Spurs legitimate title contenders again and possibly put Denver in that category as well.

But for now, I think New Orleans sticks to minor moves to get under the luxury tax, like moving Posey for Rasheed's retirement.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
They improbably won 40 games last season. Rather than let Chris Wallace make some dumb deal, they should stay the course, give Rudy Gay an extension ($60 million over five years), let Gay, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, Sam Young and Marc Gasol improve, hope they can have a refund on Hasheem Thabeet and hope Zach Randolph gives them another good year and they can get to 45 wins.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
They have nearly $20 million in cap room, a huge market and a talented core of young players (Blake Griffen, Eric Gordon, Eric Bledsoe, Al-Farouq Aminu) to go with two established veterans (Baron Davis, Chris Kaman). After the Bulls, this is the best opportunity for LeBron in terms of market size and supporting cast.

Of course, they are still owned by Donald Sterling. Why on earth would LeBron play for him? Sterling seems to think he can get LeBron. Good luck. A report that David Geffen wanted to take control of the team would have given the Clippers a real chance but Sterling had no interest. Of course he didn't.

And so it goes in Clipperville where the only max player who may be interested is Joe Johnson. Maybe Blake Griffin will be a superduperstar but probably not.

Okay, so the West has been altered with the Lakers still a true favorite, Dallas more of a threat, Phoenix and San Antonio still contenders, Utah, Portland and Houston still alive and OKC on the verge of taking over. Memphis is still hanging around and the Clippers are still terrible. New Orleans could join the Utah-Portland-Houston group or completely change the league by having a fire-sale.

I think I've created a league that's infinitely more entertaining. Let's hope the offseason shakes out even somewhat like this.