June 11, 2010

The dominoes are falling






















And they're off! As expected, Nebraska has announced that they will seek membership in the Big 10. And so dies the Big 12, although I suppose now the Big 10, which previously had 11 teams, can takeover the Big 12 moniker (and for the time being, the Big 12 can call itself the Big 10 since Nebraska and Colorado have left, even though they have 10 and not 11 teams).

Orangebloods.com, which has been all over this and ahead of this story, is reporting that four Big 12 teams are essentially signed, sealed and delivered for the Pac-10 (presumably Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State) with Texas A&M still doing a dalliance with the SEC. Should A&M opt for the SEC, it would essentially kill off its rivalry with Texas and probably leave the Pac-10 looking for another team, since they would be at 15. Possible targets? Kansas would love to go and it would be a major score for the basketball landscape of the conference.

Speaking of Kansas, they may be on their way to a newly constructed Mountain West, unless they can go to a surviving Big East. The Mountain West today landed Boise State which, from a football standpoint, gives the conference three of the four so-called mid-majors that have received bids to BCS bowls (Utah and Boise State twice each, plus TCU), plus a fourth mid-major power (BYU). The WAC is thus left to die, at least in terms of national importance. Would Kansas be willing to go to the Mountain West? It may be fine for football but it would be a major step back for the basketball program, which is only one of the four or five most important basketball programs in America.

What Kansas should do is try to get the Big East interested. Aside from the fluke 2008 season, Kansas football has pretty much been lousy for a long time and the quality in the Big East would be more on par with their level. As for basketball, Kansas would greatly increase its level of competition, pending what schools the Big 10 tries to poach (Rutgers? Pittsburgh? Notre Dame--which is in the Big East in everything but football?).

Let's say the Big 10 somehow ends up adding Rutgers, Maryland and Notre Dame with a 16th school still to be determined (Missouri is dying to go there, so let's assume it's Missouri for the purposes of this discussion). The Big East, which already has schools as far west as Chicago and Milwaukee, could look to replace Rutgers and Notre Dame with Kansas and Kansas State. From a football standpoint, it would be a one-school expansion that would probably be about equal to what they would be losing in Rutgers. From a basketball standpoint, it would be a major upgrade, sacrificing a decent program and a lousy one in a league that includes major powers in Syracuse, Connecticut and Georgetown, aspiring powers in Pittsburgh and West Virginia, and former powers like St. John's. Kansas should jump at that.

Of course, does the Big 10 want Missouri? People at Mizzou want you to believe they do and even consider themselves well-positioned, even though to date the Big 10 has made no offer, the Pac-10 doesn't want them as part of this basic merger with the Big 12 and hasn't heard anything from the Big East. Now that they have Nebraska, the Big 10 is more concerned right now about possibly tapping into large eastern markets (hence the interest in Maryland, Rutgers and possibly even Syracuse) and in trying to force Notre Dame to join. Missouri is really just a leftover that they'll take if they have to which means Mizzou really needs to hope the Big East stays as is and is interested. Otherwise, it's Mountain West time for Missouri and, really, the programs at Boise State, Utah, BYU and TCU are more on par with what Missouri really is from a football standpoint (save for the surprising 2008 season). Then again, maybe the Mountain West won't want Missouri either in which case I'll remind them that the WAC now has an opening.

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