May 15, 2010

NBA playoff predictions

Four teams left. Two glamour franchises. There is no doubt that David Stern is rooting for the Celtics and the Lakers in the conference finals. None. As it is, the remainder of the playoffs are going to be overshadowed by LeBron watch. ESPN is going to constantly fill their crawl with nonsense like "Friend of a friend of LeBron James' butler says he sources close to LeBron believe LeBron is undecided on what team to play for next season." The only way the league can avoid completely being engulfed by this is if the Celtics play the Lakers.

It's the greatest rivalry in professional sports championship history, edging out Yankees-Dodgers and Steelers-Cowboys. It's the one matchup right now that can successfully draw casual fans (although Lakers-Cavs probably would have as well). So if the Lakers or Celtics are in a must-win situation, watch for Team Stern to assign Dick Bavetta to the game.

Anyway, I think Stern's dream is going to come true. For the second time in three seasons, we're going to get Lakers-Celtics. I think the Lakers side of this is pretty self-explanatory. Yes, the Suns have something really special going. Their chemistry is unmatched. Steve Nash is playing better now than he ever has. So is Amar'e Stoudemire. The Lakers have no ability to take advantage of Nash's defensive shortcomings because Derek Fisher died last offseason and Jordan Farmar still hasn't been born. The Suns can hide Nash defensively this series. Offensively, Nash has to create a fast tempo because the Lakers don't like to play fast and don't play fast particularly effectively.

But I don't see how the Suns can matchup with all the length the Lakers have. Who is going to defend Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom? To say nothing of Kobe Bryant. There will be a couple of games when Kobe decides he has to be the hero and it will cost the Lakers but there will be more games when Phil Jackson simply forces him to feed the ball into the post and for that the Suns will have no answers. Lakers in six.

In the East, everyone is on the Orlando bandwagon. Defending conference champions, beat the Celtics in the playoffs last year, won 27 of their last 30 and blew through the first eight games of the playoffs like they were a porn star blowing Tiger Woods. But I'll point out that the Magic needed seven games to beat Boston last year and the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett in that series. You may have noticed that Garnett, after dragging his leg around all season, has come alive in the playoffs. So the tremendous inside edge Orlando had last season is gone. I'm also interested to see how Vince Carter does in a physical series. The novice Bobcats and heartless Hawks offered him no resistance. If you don't think the Celtics will pound him at opportunity, you're crazy. My money is on Carter rolling over like a dog after getting smacked a couple of times by Boston's stifling defense.

There's also something eerily familiar about the Magic. A year ago at this time, everyone was singing the praises of the Cavaliers after they had waltzed through the first two rounds. Then they ran into the Magic and lost. I could see something similar happening here. The Magic is playing so well that they could be primed for a fall. The Celtics have their core four of Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, a group that has won a championship together and may well have won another last season had Garnett's leg not failed him. I'm really looking forward to the Rondo-Jameer Nelson point guard matchup. Boston in six.

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